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by anonisko 1950 days ago
It's definitely not this simple.

How would you execute an exchange ban politically? Any politicians who did this would be responsible for instantly vaporizing tons of value owned by an increasingly non negligible fraction of the population that spans a broad spectrum of political affiliation.

An exchange ban also wouldn't stop bitcoin, because the network would still continue running and anyone cutoff and stuck with bitcoin can still use it as a medium of exchange, and it could kick off its development as a direct unit of account. An exchange ban might even make using bitcoin as currency even easier, because if it's not legally exchangeable for fiat, how do you tax cap gains on it?

Stopping bitcoin is a REALLY hard problem. It would require a massive coordinated crack down by every government on the planet. And then you're left with a prisoner's dilemma. What happens if China or Russia publicly go along with such a ban, but secretly keep supporting it and buy up coins for themselves, preparing for a day when it will be the global reserve currency that dethrones the dollar? It's a similar game theory problem to why we will likely never live in a world without nuclear weapons.

The reason this will probably never happen is because every government will think through this game theory, and realize the risk of being on the wrong side of a potentially ineffective ban and hamstringing your nation's citizens and companies from participating and developing on the new global financial system, is greater than the cost of just capitulating and adapting to live with it.

2 comments

Same way Nigeria is/did, and India is/did. You give folks 6 months to cash out and you tell the exchanges to board up their windows.
I don't really want to see politicians giving bitcoin holders too much weight when making decisions about how the economy should function.

Anyone who owns Bitcoin is gambling. There was never a guarantee that value would go up, or that the government squash the idea entirely.

If we as a society decide that Bitcoin is too dangerous, current holders should accept Bitcoin for what it was: a bad investment.

There are more people who already own some bitcoin than you'd probably want to believe. Many of them believe bitcoin is on balance a good thing.

There are at least a couple of bitcoiners currently in Congress, including the new Senator of Wyoming who is publicly all aboard the idea that bitcoin is an important, long term store of value that the US needs to jump on board with.

How many politicians do you think already hold some bitcoin quietly, just in case?

Is there way to mandate energy limits or possibly compute limits on hardware/software in the US? But that may also be a slippery slope...