[as300]

I see quite a bit of disappointing talk that disregards the contents of the article, here.

Namely, the author names one sort of bias that led 'Very Smart People' to give an outsized likelihood of Trump winning:

>I remember thinking at the time that this particular opinion of his was over-confident, perhaps even a result of over-internalizing the heuristic that if a viewpoint seems clever and contrarian then it is likely to be correct.

Doesn't this explain crypto-user's pro-Trump bias? Someone who uses crypto as a way to play on a prediction market is necessarily going to be contrarian, to some degree (remember we're being constantly bombarded by claims of how all crypto is "just speculation"). In the same way, believing Trump actually has a case for overturning the election results is a highly contrarian view.

[pwinnski]

Note that PredictIt offered similar options for all-cash users, and they were also still at 15% for Trump winning after he had clearly long lost.

This was not solely, or even primarily, a crypto thing.

[as300]

This was addressed in the article, though. PredictIt odds could've been skewed by:

* Maximum of $1000 being able to be invested on the platform

* A small fee being taken by PredictIt out of every bet.

[pwinnski]

So PredictIt odds were skewed by bet limits and fees, but you assert that the crypto markets, skewed to almost exactly the same degree, were instead skewed by the contrarian nature of crypto users?

Occam's razor suggests that when two different sites correlate so closely, their reasons are likely not so completely different.

[vbuterin]

> Doesn't this explain crypto-user's pro-Trump bias?

It does. But I was never surprised that there were people willing to bet for Trump. I was surprised by the lack of people taking the opportunity that was sitting there for over a month to bet against them.

[chillacy]

I hung around the Polymarket discord channel for awhile and there were very strong believers in the pro Trump narrative. Polymarket whales (Twitter) showed people sinking tens of thousands of dollars in pro Trump bets.