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by fn1 1948 days ago
What works well for me:

1. Split the project into tasks. (a task taking at least 3-5 PTs)

2. Have a POC / prerelease phase

3. For complex tasks introduce a second polishing task, like "Basic User management 1/2" and later "Basic User management 2/2". If the second one isn't needed: Great!

4. For all tasks/areas estimate a lower and an upper estimation in hours or PT.

5. Revisit your estimation afterwards using this process:

5.1. Imagined that someones gives you the following choice: You get 1000$ if your the true value lies within your estimation 90% of the time. Or you can roll a dice and in 9/10 you get the 1000$.

5.2 If confidently pick your estimation ("I'm 100% sure the true value is within my bounds") then it's too wide.

5.3 If you rather pick the dice-roll, then you don't trust your estimation, it's too narrow.

5.4 Adjust your estimation until both options seem equally probable to you: dice-roll or your estimate being true 90% of the time.