[keiferski]

I don’t see the early 19th century as a “mythical past”, nor did I say big changes were “just over the horizon.”

Space is quite literally limitless from a human perspective; to assume that somehow human beings will make zero progress on space travel 500 or 1,000 years from now seems naive to me.

[ymbeld]

I didn’t say something about the progress of space travel. I made an observation about how technological progress and centralization are correlated. And I don’t think societies in the age of space travel (with the technology that that entails) will be less centralized than what we have now.

[keiferski]

But I don’t think technological process and centralization are necessarily correlated. It’s more like they go in cycles.

The progression from trains to cars is a good example. At first you had highly centralized, expensive transport. Then cars developed and became decentralized.

On a longer timeline, consider technologies like writing, or paper. Initially highly centralized, now so ubiquitous that we don’t even recognize them as technologies.

I’m basically just saying that on a long enough timeline, the chances that space transportation is controlled by a central authority seems nearly impossible.