[panarky]

I think Bitcoin has huge potential right now, even after its recent run up. It could easily 4x to 6x from here, before the next halving. It could also drop by half, but at least the rewards are asymmetric with the risks.

But even though I'm optimistic about Bitcoin, I don't see it as crash-proof except in one crash scenario. It's mostly a speculative risk-on asset that loses value in crisis scenarios. We saw that in the covid crash in March last year as Bitcoin prices tumbled along with other markets.

The one crash scenario where Bitcoin doesn't crash is if Bitcoin is the thing that triggers a crisis of confidence in fiat assets. That's the hyperbitcoinization scenario that still looks improbable, but easier to imagine now than it was a couple years ago.