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by jsmith45
1944 days ago
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right. If there is a 100% chance of rain in half the forecast area, and a Zero percent chance in the other half, that is reported as a 50% chance of rain. But if you care about a particular spot, in theory you could be told the much more useful 0% or 100% number. Obviously in reality it would never be quite that simple, but the point is that a spot forecast could be much more useful and accurate than an area forecast. (Of course, the more hours ahead the more you get into scenarios where for example just a slight drift in wind angle can give very different results on certain spots, while having more negligible impact averaged over an area.) In any event we are not well set up for disseminating spot forecasts, but rather for disseminating area forecasts. In practice, as far as I have been able to determine, you can only easily get spot forecasts for airports. |
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