[mvind]

One point as a researcher working in a central bank and studying state-of-the art macroeconomic theory, is the absolute conviction that some crypto holders have that society is rotten to the core and that the financial industry (and for that matter the broader well established large cap economy) is a malfunctioning/rotten machine only benefiting the 1%.

I mean reading journals on monetary policy transmission, central banking, and finance in general, it is an extremely complex arena (understanding the global economy might be the most complex man made "game" to try to understand). And those researchers will readily admit faults and shortcomings of our current theories. I never ever see any statements from researchers that carries the same strength of conviction about any of the aforementioned topics compared to the crypto crowd, whatsoever.

Some perspective might lend itself useful.

[panarky]

1) This is a clickbait headline. TFA doesn't say there's a 50% chance of a collapse tonight. It says there's a 50% chance of collapse at some point in the next year.

2) TFA also says the reason Bitcoin futures are contango (6 month contract costs more than 3 month contract) on the Chicago Merc is because of counterparty risk with Bitcoin exchanges. But it also says there's zero counterparty risk with the Chicago Merc. So who cares about sketchy Bitcoin exchanges when you could just buy the CME 3-month, sell the CME 6-month, roll it every month and pocket the premium?

3) We should immediately discount stories about cryptoassets from any site that can't manage to set up a TLS cert.

[rognjen]

> We should immediately discount stories about cryptoassets from any site that can't manage to set up a TLS cert.

Very interesting conclusion. Let me see if I can follow along:

Adding an SSL cert = SSL

SSL = encryption

EnCRYPTion = CRYPTocurrency

Cryptocurrency = Bitcoin implementation

Bitcoin implementation = Bitcoin price

Yes, I see now how they're equivalent.

The article definitely is hand-wavy and there are other reasons to be skeptical but conclusions like this rarely help the situation.

[vntok]

Adding an SSL cert = minimal IT skills required

Understanding cryptoassets = Above minimal IT skills + more skills + more knowledge required

Not knowing how to add an SSL cert certainly does not bode well for one's expertise on crypto. Knowing how to do so but not caring is even worse.

[yownie]

>3) We should immediately discount stories about cryptoassets from any site that can't manage to set up a TLS cert.

100% this

[megameter]

I do think everyone saying "this can't go on forever" is correct, but lacks the imagination to describe the possible scenarios, and instead points to the speculation and energy/capital consumption as a given. But it's not a bubble in the usual sense - the miners and speculators are encouraging each other, giving pricing a rising base and profitable peaks over the course of multiple market cycles. That base will keep rising with spending on mining.

To me, the most probable outcome would be that as mining network consolidates and it gets harder to acquire more power, it becomes urgent to support the price by finding other sources of value to attach to the chain being mined, so we end up in a scenario where mining firms(which will increasingly mingle within the nation-state system) sponsor new coins and applications with additional social value.

[Closi]

> as mining network consolidates and it gets harder to acquire more power, it becomes urgent to support the price by finding other sources of value to attach to the chain being mined.

The amount of power used to mine a bitcoin will always raise in the long run so that the power costs approximately the same as a bitcoin at industrial electricity prices, less a contribution to the mining capital (e.g. the ASIC miner) and margin.

[throw8932894]

I think their opinions were validated quite well. If I would listen to my crazy anarcho-capitalist friend, I would be millionaire today. Other side is represented by Trump...

[llcoolv]

A lot of the people I know who were an-cap 10 years ago are millionaires today. At least from my circle. The problem is that the money-printing people are billionaires and it is a game you simply cannot win. And frankly, these days being a millionaire is not as fancy as it sounds - you can barely get a nice 7-series + a bit above average flat and living off investments/rent would require a very frugal lifestyle.

[randmeerkat]

Can barely buy a 7 series... Frugal lifestyle... Move out of the Bay Area, buy a nice house, get a Tesla model 3 performance, it’s faster and cheaper than the 7 series, and maybe reconsider what’s in your lifestyle that’s so expensive that being a millionaire is barely making it.

[bushin]

"Can't retire. Not worth it to work. Five will drive you un poco loco, my fine feathered friend. The poorest rich person in America. The world's tallest dwarf. The weakest strong man at the circus."

[llcoolv]

I have never in my life been to SV - I live in Prague. $1mil is 25 million Czech Crowns. A nice 7-series (slower than model 3, but much more comfortable - this is what I care about) is ~4 million. You have 21 left. You buy this flat (https://www.bezrealitky.cz/nemovitosti-byty-domy/649275-nabi..., I won't mention the 3% property-transfer tax out of politeness...) and you're broke. If you're the saving/money-wise type this is your nightmare.

So, you don't quite need to live in SanFran in order to not consider $1,000,000 serious money.

Yes, I could go back to my home town of Sofia, but even there 1 mil won't take me too far (certainly not make me an all-mighty mogul, this is 100x times of capital volume away. and if we're talking about buying journos and influecing public opinion, then - 1000x of capital volume). And to be honest I envy people in urban areas such as Austin (ČR is rated ~150th in the world (between Zimbabwe and Botswana) on granting construction permits) for having a real supply-demand based housing market, where you are not getting brutally punished for wanting to raise a family.

And yes, I currently live off rent, take only gigs I consider meaningful (currently hoping to get in Fidelity IT), but drive an 8-year old 530xi and live in a rented 3-bedroom flat as I expect my BTC to grow in value quicker than real estate (as has been the case in the past 8 years). This is the frugal lifestyle I mean.

P.S. Anyway - cheers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJbgNvP47-0

[ornornor]

> And frankly, these days being a millionaire is not as fancy as it sounds - you can barely get a nice 7-series + a bit above average flat and living off investments/rent would require a very frugal lifestyle.

Oh come on... yes a millionaire lifestyle isn’t a billionaire lifestyle but still.