This analysis is flawed. People are paying a premium in the futures market to have exposure to BTC without having to acquire and hold physical bitcoins. There is a similar trend in other regulated exchange products like GBTC
https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_na...
> You can’t lose your Bitcoins – you just keep them on chain, and no exchange going bust will affect your position.
You absolutely can lose your Bitcoins if your private keys are compromised. Large institutions can and do get hacked or have money embezzled all the time.
"Physical" has a specific meaning in financial jargon.
For example, when you trade EUR/USD, you can take "physical delivery" of the position. That doesn't mean that you will get a stack of banknotes, only that the trade will be settled in a different way.
> You can’t lose your Bitcoins – you just keep them on chain, and no exchange going bust will affect your position.
You absolutely can lose your Bitcoins if your private keys are compromised. Large institutions can and do get hacked or have money embezzled all the time.