[TedPetrou]

Israel is experiencing very high excess deaths with respect to its elderly in 2021 (see euroMOMO https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/)

This is despite over 80% of its 70+ age group having both doses of the vaccine. At least half of the 70+ were fully vaccinated by January 23rd.

It is the elderly all cause mortality that ultimately matters to me. If elderly are dying of other causes, then there are problems.

Regardless, 2021 elderly mortality in Israel will serve as a good test for the vaccine as the vast majority of 70+ will be fully vaccinated for nearly the entire year.

[proverbialbunny]

As a general rule of thumb there is at least a 2 week delay from getting COVID to death, so it's too early to say going off of a death count. Alternatively, looking up how many new cases of people vaccinated are getting COVID could be used, which doesn't have the delay.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/israel-severe-hospitaliza...