[Rallerbabs]

The real estate & bitcoin comparison is apples & oranges.

Real estate existed (and still exists) in a world of inflationary government IOUs (read: fiat). People were taking out too many & too large loans. Ofcourse it was going to go bust. People were talking about it. The author of the book he linked, was being a contrarian.

Bitcoin has created its own reality, which has only just started to gain traction. It's the early days of the dot com boom. It's the early days of SEO.

Every informed individual sees the writing on the wall. Something doesn't grow for 12 years straight, unless it's got something interesting going on.

To state that bitcoin is going away, is the equivalent of stating that the Internet is just a fad that will soon die out. It's an inherently contrarian view.

[cableshaft]

I'm not arguing it's going to die out. I may or may not be one of those someones who has had at least a little bitcoin since it was priced $220 (or earlier).

But while we may be nearing (or at) the end of the era of crazy drops, where everyone thinks "Oh crap, it's all over, time to jump off the ship!" and bitcoin is now in a 2+ year bear run, I can't discount the possibility, and the price still swings up and down in price quite a bit even as recently as two months ago, so I think it's possible that we could see see a fairly big, somewhat sustained drop again (maybe not a whopping 80% drop, but 30-40% maybe? I'm also hopeful it won't last as long, like maybe only 6-12 months, not 24 months).

[Rallerbabs]

The bear market was actually closer to 3 years. But that ended a while back. It's now solidly in a bull market.

Bitcoin is fantastic. But even fantastic assets can become overvalued. And indeed, this will happen again. There will be another bear market.

I keep myself up to date on the market sentiment every day. I have been doing this for years now. The current sentiment is that we are in the middle of the bull market. Both billionaires as well as retail buyers have only just arrived.

Everything is going much, much higher for at least the rest of the year.

If the market cycle repeats like last time, the bull market will last at least the larger part of this year.

If the cycle is lengthening, as you'd expect when market cap grows larger, then the current bull rally will last longer still: say... to the end of 2022.

The question is: are we currently at the knee of a larger S-curve?

If so, then we are truly witnessing a rare event, in which asset appreciations will truly blow us off our socks.

In such an event, bitcoin would become too scarce for it to do another 85% retrace, which is what it's done in previous market cycles.

(Any by the way... the 30-40% figure are considered normal retraces, of which we usually have multiple during a larger bitcoin bull run.)

Billionaire Michael Saylor from Microstrategies is saying that he's not selling. Billionaires are, in this regard, different from retail, who do sell.

The only way to estimate bottoms and tops successfully, is to be right on top of it every day of every week.

You snooze, you lose.

[cableshaft]

Yeah I don't really think we're actually in disagreement here. I pretty much share your thoughts in this comment.

[Rallerbabs]

Wasn't arguing.

Except for whether we're in a bear or bull market. It's definitely a bull currently.

[cableshaft]

Wasn't trying to argue we weren't in a bull market right now, just not sure how long it will last. You said basically the same as I did, that it may end within a year. I hope it will last a lot longer than that, of course. Hell, I was hoping we'd be flirting with $50k 2 or 3 years ago.

It looks like it should last longer based on the institutional investment, but I also thought we had enough interest three years ago and suddenly we entered bear territory (thankfully I luckily sold some of my crypto a week before it started to drop for a downpayment on a house, but I held on to the rest for way too long, way too long meaning I never sold, and should have sold and bought back in a year or two later, in hindsight). At least I still have it now for this boom, but I could have had double or triple what I have now.

But I'm watching the market and news like a hawk in case sentiment seems to shift back to 'the sky is falling' suddenly again.