[graeme]

Remember that hospitalizations take at least 2-3 weeks post infection to occur, and that you don’t see protection from the first dose for at least five days or so.

So you’d expect hospitalizations to lag 18-26 days or so. Also the chart is not saying all those groups had vaccines: those under 60 largely haven’t been. The labels could have been clearer.

It’s just a chart of change in hospitalization by age from a starting date.

[throwaway_Ie8th]

You are saying "Late vaccinated 0-59 years old" should be read as "Unvaccinated and late vaccinated 0-59 years old"?

Why didn't they use that label then?

[graeme]

Actually, I was wrong. I checked the source paper. I believe the labels refer to cohorts from cities that were early in the vaccination campaign vs cohorts from cities that were late in the campaign.

So 0-59 late vaccinated means some vaccines but later in time and fewer in number.

This is what I gathered from the abstract anyway: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.08.21251325v...

Apologies for original error.

[nicoburns]

Because they have been vaccinated. The vaccine just (likely) hasn't taken affect and started affecting the statistics yet.

[RobinL]

I'm not sure that is true. As I understand it, it's a cohort of people of that age who live in a geographical area of Israel where vaccination was started early. So it includes people of that age who declined the vaccine/didn't get it fr other reasons.

Of course, you're also correct that another important factor is that some of the cohort are not yet fully protected.

The definitions are here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.08.21251325v...

Quote: In order to distill the possible effect of the vaccinations from other factors, including a third lockdown imposed in Israel on January 2021, we compared the time-dependent changes in number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations between (1) individuals aged 60 years and older, eligible to receive the vaccine earlier and younger individuals (0-59 years old); (2) early-vaccinated cities compared to late-vaccinated cities; (3) early-vaccinated geographical statistical areas (GSAs) compared to late-vaccinated GSAs;

[graeme]

Yeah I was wrong. I believe early and late refers to cities and the cohorts are taken from early or late cities.