[michaeldhopkins]

Rest in peace.

Ironically, the odds on an InTrade bet might have warned him that he was not expected to survive. The crowdsourced research about conditions and the likely physical ability of Mr. Delaney would have exceeded his own and might have led him to delay or reconsider the trip.

[gamble]

From what I've read of his death, it sounds like he was killed by high-altitude cerebral edema. (Swelling caused by altitude-induced blood leakage within the brain) HACE is essentially impossible to predict. Fit, healthy, experienced climbers die every year from HACE, often with almost no warning. It is unfortunately a risk you take when climbing extreme heights like Everest.

[knowtheory]

I'm unconvinced that this is relevant unless the markets you're talking about have a history of accurately predicting random or chaotic systems like weather :P

A lot of the decision points for whether to go on or turn back have to be made in the short term on the mountain.