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by Isinlor
1959 days ago
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Yes, Musk is overly optimistic. On average you can double his predictions. And his missed predictions on self-driving are extreme even for him. But Tesla is making progress. Maybe even more importantly, the world is making progress on fundamentals of machine learning. If you want more reliable estimate than Musk, then you can check forecast aggregators with established track record [0]. I've asked "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?" [1] Metaculus being the forecast aggregator. Community predicts 25% before 2024, 50% before 2026, 75% before 2029, 95% before 2035. I'm personally more aggressive and predict 95% before 2030. [0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/ [1] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-te... |
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