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I don't think anyone can predict what's going to be big, and what isn't, and that's why bad VC/investor/coach advice is so pernicious. Let's look at the progression: Google shows up, makes a big splash among the tech elite but attracts little attention in the popular market until their obscene IPO, and investors collectively say, "Damn, well, I don't want to miss out on the next Google!" Then there was Facebook, and again, investors collectively say, "Damn, well, I don't want to miss out on the next Facebook!" Now there's Airbnb, and investors are saying what now? (I'm skipping over a ton of other big to almost-big examples in this progression; hopefully someone more knowledgeable will fill in some gaps, but I don't think it will diminish the point.) The thing is, Facebook wasn't the next Google and Airbnb wasn't the next Facebook. None of the breakout hits have been entirely original ideas, nor would an early-stage pitch have been compelling to anyone with the ability to be a significant early investor. There were zero signals that would have worked as a strong early indicator of future success. The more I observe this industry, the more it strikes me that any investor that's investing in the hopes of being part of The Next Big Thing is simply gambling. Just as in gambling, if you study the game and the rules carefully enough, you can tip the odds in your favor a bit, but there's still no such thing as a guaranteed win. When I hear people say, "We're looking for the next X," my eyes roll back into my head a bit. |