[freeburma]

I am in Yangon, Myanmar now, if anyone has any questions.

All Internet and TV, phone service, cut off. However fiber internet land lines are still working. Most ATMs are still working but very long lines.

Soldiers and tanks in many parts of city. City hall if full of soldiers.

[cko]

I was there Dec 2019 (for pleasure). Saw some soldiers in the international airport area, that was it.

I learnt about the Rohingya ethnic cleansing before going and how the leader wouldn't publicly condemn military actions. It now seems like she didn't want to ruffle some feathers.

What's the general attitude over there? Did anyone see this coming? I was able to meet a few locals and ate at the same three places for one month. The youth were optimistic. The city felt alive. Multinationals were investing.

Would be sad to see US sanctions followed by the populace getting the shaft, like some North Korea situation.

[goodcanadian]

Did anyone see this coming?

Given that I heard that it was probably coming in Western media a couple of days ago, I think the signs were probably there.

[koheripbal]

North Korea is an apt comparison because the country has very strong ties with North Korea.

[nocoder]

How do you feel about this situation?

What has been your personal experience living in Myanmar all this while?

How do you see this situation playing out?

[freeburma]

I feel sad for the people of Myanmar. I feel sad for Aung San Suu Kyi and all freedom fighters who have sacrificed their whole life and family to better Myanmar.

My personal experience is Myanmar is a wonderful country full of a wonderful people, and vibrant culture, despite living in the shadow of ethnic violence and a brutal military regime.

It’s hard to say how this will play out. For many here it’s a mystery why military did this, as they already had power over state business, 25% military appointed legislature, control of courts, etc. and the benefit of hiding behind fake democracy to get foreign investment. So people are confused as to what their motive is, as they already had the best of both worlds.

[csomar]

> So people are confused as to what their motive is

Economic prosperity for the populace is dangerous for a dictatorship. Myanmar is still a poor country which exports mainly things dug out of ground. If the situation changes and now the military is financed by businesses and tax-payer money, they'll have to answer to those.

This is bad news for the military leaders and their gang. They'd much better have a small income from these resources and a poor population than being ousted. (and probably face prosecution)

[bredren]

>While failures to reform the country can be considered by many to be at the disadvantage of NLD, in a more cynical reading, it might actually be to the party’s advantage. Ironically, it helps to convince the people that there are still influential dark forces (read: the military) that deter the party from reforming the country. [1]

Do you believe that your consideration of the previous military power is widely understood and that the above quote explains the success of the NLD in the election?

Do you feel San Suu Kyi has been prevented from acting to protect ethnic minorities due to the influence of the military?

If so, is there reason to believe the military would perceive the beyond landslide victory in favor of the NLP as Likely to disrupt or erode their existing position of power?

[1] https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/myanmar-shattered-hopes-for-...

[freeburma]

Most international press is dangerously misinformed about structure of government in Burma. For example, constitution (created by military) gives military control of 25% legislature seats, president, and courts. The military doesn’t answer to any civilian authority. Civilian government can’t reform constitution or appoint critical positions without military approval.

Almost everyone in Burma hates military and understands that civilian government can’t do everything they want.

Yet all the international coverage seems ignorant of these facts, condemning ASSK for things she doesn’t control, like military operations in Rhakine against Rohingya. They don’t understand that the reason she defended military at UN is only outcome of not defending them would be sanctions which just further harms civilian government and people. She had no choice.

People here in Burma are still confused as to motivation for coup, since military already had best of both worlds: ultimate power of law and courts, and no sanctions because of farcical democracy. Why they would risk sanctions to do this is a mystery.

[calt]

> Why they would risk sanctions to do this is a mystery.

Sorry for offering wild conjecture, but the first thing that comes to mind is some kind of a payout to generals from China, who is hoping for sanctions from the rest of the world so that they can be the sole influencer in the country.

Or some variation on that theme: influence from China.

Or perhaps just some power hungry generals longing for the old days <shrug>

[napier]

No so crazy. Many believe Chinese interests like behind what’s been happening in Rakhine since 2017 as well. The rest of the world shunning Burma benefits the CCP more than anyone other than the Myanmar generals.

[coliveira]

It seems that the parliament elections reduced the number of military representatives. The elections were seen as reducing the power of the military.

[burmahn]

No it didn't. Military representatives are unelected and appointed by commander-in-chief.

[bredren]

Your point about international press makes me wonder if Navalny is sort of setting an impossible standard for opposition political leadership.

[zackees]

> For many here it’s a mystery why military did this

Big Tech started banning Myanmar government officials from their services that they didn’t approve of. Now they cry about suspension of democracy? The claims of a rigged elections in Myranmar sounds eerily familiar...

[uniqueid]

Because of the genocide?

[vmception]

It's sad how empowering the US is to... everyone.

At one point I would have thought of this as presumptive hubris, but now with a 100% correlation that would just be naive.

[bpolverini]

Who do the Kachin, Karen, Rakhine, Shan, etc. support at this time? Are they siding with the NDL or the military?

[freeburma]

Most of the independence armies except Rhakine armies (AA and ARSA) officially want a true federal union, which would require a new constitution. This is the same aim as NLD.

Only KNU (Karen army) so far has made statement opposing military coup.

Edit: That said, independence armies are all to some degree corrupt and many funded through drug manufacturing and smuggling.

[singingfish]

Was talking to my family in Yangon last night ... apparently some of the smaller cell providers stayed up over the course of yesterday too.

[deathlight]

Was there any sense by you or in the press that this could potentially happen over the last few weeks?

[freeburma]

Yes it was known a few days ago (Thursday) when tanks and soldiers showed up in Yangon, and at press conference Thursday the general hinted at a coup.

[sbmthakur]

Are they detaining civilians?

[freeburma]

Yes. All NLD leaders, ASSK, her lawyer, physician, President, lawmakers, chief ministers of Yangon, Mon state, Karen state, mandalay, and more all detained. Some activists, some journalists, and some filmmakers too arrested in middle of the night. Anyone critical of regime.

Military has also taken over ASSK FB page and is posting false information.