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by nickysielicki 1963 days ago
The way that WSB has latched onto Melvin as their enemy is to their detriment. It was never about killing Melvin capital, or at least, it shouldn't have been. It ought to have been about the ridiculous short interest on the stock, regardless of who was funding it. Whether or not Melvin specifically has covered their shorts is irrelevant to how the short interest as a percentage of float has changed in the past week.

https://twitter.com/ihors3 is the source to pay attention to, and he's saying (within the past hour) that collectively, the shorts have been largely covered. It's going to be bloody tomorrow.

... Either that, or magical meme energy is going to defy reason once again. Who knows.

6 comments

They latched onto Citron first. They're focusing on punishing the "enemy" instead of an abstract trade idea. Motivates holding longer instead of jumping ship to cash out.

At this point though, many original buyers have probably sold some/all and most current holders are in it to make a quick buck, not to stick it to the suits. They'll be happy to jump off with a 2x or 3x return if they think the house of cards is about to collapse. Hedge funds sell first and retail traders left holding the bags, complaining the system's all rigged when they should never have entered in the first place. We don't know the exact timing, but we know it will be bloody at some point.

> They're focusing on punishing the "enemy" instead of an abstract trade idea.

Afaik that's only a somewhat recent change in narrative.

One doesn't get that many people, and that much money, on-board solely on the idea of "Burn your money to punish an enemy that has much more money than you", you get them on-board by promising massive gains and how getting in on this will yield such great returns that people can buy houses and pay off debt.

Which was the original narrative that started all of this and is still the most peddled one.

There are a handful of people who are quite open about the fact that they are willing to burn money to hurt the hedge-funds, but those get mostly drowned out by the flood of comments along the lines of "Look at all the money we made!" pushing people to further buy in even when GME is at $200+ because "We go to the moon!" or some other memefied slogan.

I think you’re wrong. Having an enemy always helps rally people to a cause. In the case of this GME saga, WSB’s juvenile hatred towards funds they perceive as their opponents actually ended up being their biggest rhetorical win. The media picked up the story of “Reddit vs hedge funds” and ran with it because it’s much more interesting than “amateur investors want to get rich quick”. That generated the huge public interest, and was helped by a large array of pundits and politicians(like AOC) who wanted to get their nose in the publicity trough when they saw the media feeding frenzy. If the message had only been about some Reddit get rich quick scheme, nobody would have cared, and it would not have gone far.
If the stock continues going up this week, it's that the "magical meme" energy is actually the momentum traders and various celebrities who want to keep the story going by putting more money into it. Of course, they are then likely to flip their positions for a profit before they tell their followers they've sold, leaving the fans holding the bag. Just at a more extended timeframe than you'd predict.
The driving force behind the movement is a David and Goliath story. Take away Goliath, or turn the enemy into some abstract concept, and you weaken the story. I'm not sure it would have worked as well.

Organized pump and dumps aren't anything new, but this is the first I've seen that used a story with mass appeal to energize its base.

>defy reason once again.

Nothing I've read about this hints that reason was ever defied. If anything reason was used cunningly.

How could they have covered their shorts on Friday with such low volume?
Huge volumes trade off exchange in “upstairs” markets (blocks and dark pools). In a super volatile and absurdly illiquid at times market like GME recently, this is where the institutionals would do most of their trading.

If I needed to buy 1m shares of GME I wouldn’t do it in the open market. I would call my favorite sell side shop, let’s say Goldman and have them call Fidelity or similar to arrange a block trade.

I think that post is representative of how only the market and time will actually flesh out this story. The GME holding party entrenches further because the graph is bad (Y Axis distortion) and the GME short party says the pressure has been alleviated.