[WClayFerguson]

AT and GC are such simple molecules we can assume wherever we find 50 of them in one place (first replicator) you're going to have not just 50 but an abundance of them in that place too. And since that's what the replicator needs to replicate it's literally sitting in a bath of it's own "food" with no predators around, so it will grow like crazy and immediately. lipid-bilayer might be needed to find a pattern for "cells" to form, sure, agreed. And in all this 'base' counting math the statistics is the same regardless of whether it's DNA or RNA.

[kaba0]

Thermodynamics would beg to differ about your first sentence. Also, I’m not trying to disprove your point, since life did emerge in some way and I’m not fond of unscientific explanations. But it is naiv to assume that life is a definite outcome given an Earth-like situation with a primordial soup.

[WClayFerguson]

> Thermodynamics would beg to differ

It's already experimentally proven you can mix up N, H, and O and it spontaneously forms RNA. We've even found entire RNA and sugars on meteorites. It's not rare in nature, it's abundant and self-emergent from the raw atoms themselves.

[kaba0]

I replied in terms of your first sentence. Molecules doesn’t concentrate spontaneously without active energy expenditure from someone (putting salt in a pot will have salt uniformly distributed everywhere).

Now, either there were some naturally formed impermeable areas with an abundance of base material (yet again, I’m not saying life emerged because the UFOs created it), or we are talking about many orders of magnitude less statistical chances. I am willing to believe that many, not individually extraordinary thing had to happen at the same time, that made life possible - but that pretty much makes their combined presence extraordinary, which is my claim.

(Some form of underwater volcanic caves or whatever could sound like a possibility, especially because last I checked, starting sticked to a surface with certain catalytic activities is a plausible theory. Especially due to the reduced statistical chances due to a 2D surface instead of a 3D one! What I have a bit of trouble seeing, is how did organic materials form - I am aware of the famous experiment with lightning bolts that created ammonia and some other chemicals, but it would only slowly increase their uniform distribution in the oceans. Perhaps some chemical reaction with gases that made them accumulate? )

[WClayFerguson]

AT and GC never concentrate spontaneously. Brownian motion makes them 'find' each other and immediately snap together like tinker toys when they find a partner that fits. That's why you need warm temperatures, and it's why all chemical reaction rates are proportional to temperature. Even in a solution with 0.00001PPM reagents, reactions take place rapidly when warm.