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by ncmncm 1967 days ago
Collapse by 2030 is entirely possible under unsurprising circumstances. I rate it as near 50% likelihood, increasing rapidly after:

As climate disruption increases, crop failures in tropical and subtropical countries result in mass migration, first to cities and then toward wealthy temperate countries.

Temperate countries react by electing fascist governments to repel refugees. Fascist governments start wars (as they do), which spiral and disrupt international trade. Trade failure triggers economic crises, which exacerbate wars, ultimately leading to nuclear weapons exchange, and collapse.

Reason to believe: already starting, with no remedial action visible or planned.

1 comments

Looking forward to coming back here in 10 years...
I hope you are right. But I don't see anything happening to inspire confidence.