[skissane]

On https://collapseos.org/why.html he says:

> I expect our global supply chain to collapse before we reach 2030

What's he going to say if we get to 2030 and his predicted collapse hasn't happened yet? "I was wrong" or "It's just taking a little longer than I expected"?

[jolmg]

Doesn't really matter. The project's value doesn't require the collapse to happen by then or any specific time. In any case, the author found value for themselves in building their project even if the collapse never happens:

> But nevertheless, this idea seems too powerful to not try it. And even if it proves futile, it's a lot of fun to try.

[skissane]

I'm not saying the project is without value; I think if the author or others find educational/aesthetic/recreational/etc benefit from it, that's great.

It is like TempleOS. Not useful for its purported purpose of communicating with God, but nonetheless interesting and valuable as an example of a single person developing a programming language and OS, which even has a few novel ideas in it.

[jolmg]

Except this one could serve its purported purpose, even if a collapse doesn't happen by 2030.

A collapse doesn't even need to happen ever. As I see it, its purpose is to be available as a safety net.

[TeMPOraL]

Probably the latter. Doesn't mean he will be wrong, though.

I really don't get people's optimism here. This is not some doomsday prophecy divined from religious texts. It's a trend in the data - if nothing significantly changes, we're headed for a crash in the coming decades.

It's like watching a program with a memory leak - you see it ticking up in its memory usage, knowing that when it approaches 100%, it will crash. Oh, it didn't, because Haber-Bosch^W^Wthere was a swap drive? Well, the swap space isn't infinite either.

Sure, maybe skyrocketing oil prices won't crash the economy (though people seem to forget that oil isn't just fuel and energy, but also anything made from plastics - i.e. just about everything). But something else will give (likely the habitability of this planet). We need to step off the exponent, or ride it to space. But we can't fit it on Earth much longer.

[imtringued]

The thing about these types of events is that if everyone prepares against them they will never happen.

[wpietri]

The latter, I'm sure. The historical event known as The Great Disappointment is a fascinating study in cognitive dissonance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Disappointment

[tonyedgecombe]

He seems strongly invested in the idea. The more you invest in an idea the more value you attach to it and hence the more resistant you become to evidence that contradicts it. so most likely it will be "It's just taking a little longer than I expected."

[cbozeman]

He already hedges his bets and makes pretty much the exact excuses you predicted.

I find this whole exercise to be utterly pointless, but hey, its his time, his money, and his effort, so more power to him.

[gruturo]

It doesn't really matter what he says - his initiative, in my point of view, is like an insurance policy.

What do you say if you paid for health insurance, car insurance, but nothing at all happened to you over the course of the decade? Nothing. You count yourself lucky and keep paying.