[crmrc114]

I like the honesty on https://collapseos.org/civ.html but I get a very John Titor vibe from the author- To be honest if we have the collapse he envisions I think most people would be too worried about food to care about bootstrapping something on random hardware. However cyberpunk or fallout cool the idea is... still, was a fun read.

[DaiPlusPlus]

His expectations ("predictions"?) are predicated on three things: climate-change, peak-oil and "cultural bankruptcy".

I understand the most realistic scenarios for climate-change do indeed suck for everyone involved, but won't lead to mass human extinction - and the predictions of "water wars" were not grounded in realpolitk.

Of peak-oil being a harbinger of imminent societal collapse is immediately bunk: the world's economically leading countries and supranationals have already put in place plans for post-oil sustainability - such as fossil-fuel car sale bans within 10 years. Furthermore Covid has demonstrated that society carries on functioning when air-travel is cut to a fraction of its former volume - leaving only international shipping and road-haulage as the remaining oil consumers without a decent post-oil plan yet - but it's demonstrable that there's plenty of oil left to keep those services running for decades with current proven reserves - considerably more-so with the expected end of gas-powered cars within a couple of decades.

The author's definition of "cultural bankruptcy" seems to be "the US is exporting individualism to the world, which will mean an inevitable decline to non-cooperation and (insert your preferred game-theory metaphor here)". Whatever one may think of that, he doesn't establish a reasoned connection between the two - just hand-waving.

I think the author just has an anxiety disorder that needs better management.

[neartheplain]

Just looked up John Titor on Wikipedia:

John Titor is a name used on several bulletin boards during 2000 and 2001 by a poster claiming to be an American military time traveler from 2036. Titor made numerous vague and specific predictions regarding calamitous events in 2004 and beyond, including a nuclear war, none of which came true. Subsequent closer examination of Titor's assertions provoked widespread skepticism. Inconsistencies in his explanations, the uniform inaccuracy of his predictions, and a private investigator's findings all led to the general impression that the entire episode was an elaborate hoax.

Sounds more than a bit like QAnon, at least in design if not reach or effect.

[vlovich123]

The favorite part of this story for me was this:

> ... [various debunked predictions] led to the general impression that the entire episode was an elaborate hoax.

Whereas this

> by a poster claiming to be an American military time traveler from 2036.

Wasn’t the thing. Could be everyone was trolling but some of the commenters really seemed like true believers egged on by the trolls (kind of like flat earthers).

I just fundamentally don’t understand the level of gullibility involved that’s needed to buy into a story like that (like I get it exists but I just can’t understand the mentality that leads there). It’s also likely why astrology, religion, and wild unbelievable conspiracy theories take hold in our society (I like my conspiracy theories to have what I consider a more plausible down-to-earth premise).

I wonder what the evolutionary advantage there is for the duality in society. Is it really just as simple that the primitive “what if it could be true” is good for helping you avoid danger and the “that’s not a plausible line of thinking” helping better locate real world opportunities are the two engines for our success as a species? And that the misapplication is just a trait that’s not useful in a comparatively peaceful time (and the tension ironically brings about the reduction of peace time?).

[throwaway316943]

It isn’t a matter of some people being gullible and others aren’t, everyone is gullible in this sense but a lot depends on prior experience, knowledge, peer groups and a lot of other factors. Trolls and conmen play a big part in building a cohesive narrative for fun and profit. People who are looking for a community gravitate to things like this and are easily influenced due to their lack of a counter balancing force in their lives (friends, community, work, faith, etc.). It becomes the thing they live for, part of the story of their life and a framework they use to understand the world. The scary thing is a lot of the world works this way and only varies in quality and pervasiveness. It’s the air we breath so it’s hard to get perspective on. How can you know for sure that something is true if it is beyond your means to verify? You have to appeal to authority or the majority. We do this with practically everything in our lives out of necessity, it’s impossible to vet everything. Most of it is valid and based on widely distributed independent verification. But there are messy areas where either this isn’t possible or where there is strong motivation to argue for a particular view. Politics and religion are pervaded by unverifiable claims and opinions. But it reaches into every aspect of life where there is uncertainty, money or an axe to grind.

[aruggirello]

HN thread also worth reading:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22558182

[QuesnayJr]

I was just wondering if people ever claim to be time travelers from the future, and if so what kind of reception they get.