[csomar]

At least, for now, I don't think the US will let Taiwan be eaten by China. The US did protect (and to some extent create) Taiwan long before Taiwan had any value.

Taiwan being invaded by China is a signal of the end of US hegemony around the world.

[adventured]

> Taiwan being invaded by China is a signal of the end of US hegemony around the world.

It'll only loudly signal an end to US hegemony in Asia (which has already happened de facto). That is inevitable regardless of a Taiwan invasion and everyone knows it at this point. China has gained immense positioning during the pandemic while all other major nations have lost. There was never a scenario where the US could retain its former dominance in Asia as China arrived at being a full-fledged superpower (they'll be there militarily this decade). US hegemony, to the extent it exists, will remain intact elsewhere for decades after it lost that status in Asia. US hegemony isn't based on signals and perception, it's based on military force projection and whether there are equal counters to that in a given region. China is very close to powerful enough to counter the US military in the Asia region (not just near its borders) and that determines the hegemony regardless of whether China goes into Taiwan anytime soon. Anyone thinking the US still retains hegemony in Asia is most likely fooling themselves at this point.

[hollerith]

George Friedman and Peter Zeihan say that it is not clear that China would win a war even just against Japan.

Both countries rely on imported oil. The most likely cause of a war between them is an oil shortage, giving nations an incentive to use their navies to capture oil tankers. The use of navies to capture cargoes of national importance was common for centuries till end of WWII. It ceased after WWII because of US naval dominance combined with the use of free trade as a part of US strategy in the cold war, but of course the cold war is over; so the US, which has been and remains the power least reliant on international trade, could choose not to spill the blood of US sailors to keep the sea lanes open to all.

Japan knows this and has been building a navy that can operate outside the South China sea and in the Indian ocean, so that it can escort oil tankers from the Persian Gulf to Japan. China's navy in contrast cannot operate outside the South China sea, he says.

Friedman says that aircraft carriers benefit a country only if it has admirals that know how to use them and points out that Japan's admirals have been trained by admirals trained by admirals that actually used aircraft carriers in a major war.

The main purpose of the People's Liberation Army is to put down a rebellion by Chinese citizens. The primary goal and concern of the rulers of China beyond their Party's remaining in power is to prevent the country from splitting apart. For most of the 2500-year history of China, it has been divided into multiple polities, and outside powers have played the pieces off against each other.

The US just lost a war against the Taliban, a war it spent many trillions of dollars on, so I doubt the US military worries about whether a loss in a future conflict would signal an end of US hegemony.

[tylermauthe]

Can you provide sources for these claims? Thanks!

[thoughtstheseus]

The congressional research service is a good place to start. Noting the source (government) of course.