[andy_ppp]

My guess would be there is a plan for the US to bomb the TSMC factories in the event of China winning an extremely costly war against Taiwan. I’m not sure the US would actually come to Taiwan’s aid. I mean surely Taiwan has enough arms to destroy a very expensive chunk of Beijing and Shanghai in response to any invasion? Terrifying stuff...

[pm90]

It’s almost certain that the US would be involved if the PRC chose to invade Taiwan. Losing Taiwan would be a geopolitical catastrophe: protecting Taiwan from an invasion with the Pacific fleet would be critical in preserving the Taiwanese Armed forces and thus preventing more American lives from being spent in the war.

Seems pretty far fetched considering today’s economic and political conditions though.

[indymike]

There is a reason the US maintains a nuclear deterrent.

[choonway]

have you considered the scenario that taiwan would peacefully reunite with prc? what would the us do? fight?

[eloisius]

First of all, there is no ‘reunite’ because Taiwan has never been united with the PRC. It has been governed by the Republic of China, which predates PRC by many decades, since Japan’s defeat in WWII and subsequent surrender of its colonies. A unification scenario is less likely today than it has ever been before, and grows less likely every year. Millions of Taiwanese outright reject the idea that they are part of China. A diminishing minority of waishengren that evacuated the mainland to Taiwan in 1949 are about the only people who would favor unification.

Nothing wrong with considering that scenario, but as for a national referendum resulting in a peaceful unification? Chances are basically zero.

[mytailorisrich]

> First of all, there is no ‘reunite’ because Taiwan has never been united with the PRC.

There is no reintegration of Taiwan into the PRC, since it has indeed never been part of it.

But the term 'Chinese reunification' is the correct one, because China has indeed split over "unfinished" business in 1949.

In any case, IMHO this narrative is moot when discussing peaceful reunification because I can only see this having a chance of happening after the mainland has transformed into a democracy, which would probably mean that it would not be the 'PRC' anymore.

[eloisius]

Taiwan hasn’t been integrated with mainland China since the Qing Dynasty. It goes further than unfinished business in 1949. Korea and Vietnam also used to be integrated with ‘China’. The Taiwanese have had plenty of time to forge their own independent culture. Democracy on the mainland or not, the people of Taiwan would benefit very little from a union with a country that has half the per capita GDP that they have.

[mytailorisrich]

I am trying to stick to facts and to refrain from pushing an agenda here.

Taiwan was seized from China in 1895, and given back in 1945. It has remained 'China' ever since, just not part of the PRC. The people are ethnic Chinese and in fact quite a few people fled the communist forces on the mainland by moving to Taiwan, including the government itself. One example being the founder of TSMC. Another example, Foxconn's founder was born in Taiwan right after his parents fled from the mainland.

I find the comparison with Korea and Vietnam factually incorrect and rather disingenuous, irrespective of what the people of Taiwan might think of reunification.

[pm90]

Seems unlikely considering everything that's happening in HK.

[mytailorisrich]

Of course they would be involved. But they would not attack China directly.

It would be insanity for the US to declare war on China (and they know that), and I am always puzzled (and slightly worried) by the number of American commenters who seem to think that the US can 'just' attack China.