Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by mamon 1977 days ago
That's not how it works.

First: US make a lot of promises to a lot of countries. If they are not willing to go to war over Taiwan, that makes most of those promises (like NATO pact) basically worthless. So US has to defend Taiwan.

Second: Military confrontation between US and Chinese forces does not mean WWIII - they won't start shooting nukes, it will be more conventional war. We had such examples during previous Cold War: Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan.
3 comments
indymike 1977 days ago
All three of these examples (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan) were at the time of their "conflicts" impoverished, agricultural economies. Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan were more important to US allies than to the US. Taiwan, on the other hand, is a modern economy, wealthy and highly integrated with the US economy. Fortunately, all three sides of the Taiwan situation understand this, and because of that, nothing is going to happen (hopefully).
link
forty 1977 days ago
I'm not even sure it would be a conventional war. More a digital and commercial war I would bet (which is already happening I guess). Something like the US and their allies stopping to purchase anything from China, if that's even possible. Look at what happened in Ukraine, Russia got a few sanctions from EU, but as far as I know, they are still trading with them, purchasing their gaz.
link
mytailorisrich 1977 days ago
> If they are not willing to go to war over Taiwan

They are not willing to do to war over Taiwan. The opposite would be insane. Equally China is not willing (and able) either.

This is a balance of threats with both sides knowing where to stop.

The US are obviously not stupid and they never committed to intervene against China. They have just committed to 'help' and make sure that Taiwan can defend itself, which is very different.

> Military confrontation between US and Chinese forces does not mean WWIII

It does when the US directly attack the Chinese over Chinese territory.

I.e. the US would be declaring war on China. I would not let anyone who does not see the insanity of that prospect have a job in government.

link