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by fapjacks 1969 days ago
I am on board (badum-psh!) with diffuse causality for massive and complex systems like "retail-level" (or consumer-level) import/export trade, but your point would be more persuasive with a trailhead of links demonstrating to what degree this is affecting the outcome. Because it's true that American consumers spent more during this past holiday season than ever before, with CNBC quoting the National Retail Federation (retail trade group) as saying a driver of increased buying was that people aren't spending on travel, entertainment, and services. [0] Also, unemployment has gone down significantly from those crazy levels from last spring. [1] It also appears the port itself said in late November that there was an increase of 22% in container traffic to the port. [2] However the LA Times makes the same claim that you are making, but without citing any source. Edit to add two things: Interesting to note the LA Times also implied that the federal government might be investigating some potential shenanigans around empty container availability. [3] Also, any idea where the tweet you posted is getting those numbers?

[0] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/retail-trade-group-forecasts...

[1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[2] https://gcaptain.com/covid-restocking-surge-continues-at-por...

[3] https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-11-22/shipping-c...

1 comments

Didn’t you read the article? COVID is definitely part of the equation and listed as a cause under “Congestion cause”.

“Terminals are working with limited labor and split shifts,” it said, asserting that this is related to COVID. “This labor shortage affects all terminals’ TAT [turnaround time] for truckers, inter-terminal transfers and the number of daily appointments available for gate transactions and delays our vessel operations.”

I didn't assert that COVID wasn't part of the equation, and it's nicer for everybody if we don't assume somebody hasn't read an article (though I agree it's a natural thing to wonder sometimes).