[jdsully]

The reason we prefer inflation is because there is a history of wild swings going from boom to bust. We do not level out at a spot where people have “enough” and retire but instead the economy swings into deep recession and people can’t feed themselves and go homeless.

Around the early 1900s we discovered that with careful application of stimulus we can even out these cycles and soften their impact - an innovation that has dramatically reduced human suffering over the past 100 years.

[roenxi]

As arguments go, that one is unpersuasive:

1) People still can't feed themselves and go homeless, countries that have inflationary policy sill generally have well developed welfare policy. It also isn't obvious that purposefully increasing the price of food and housing is helping, the bar of evidence for such an unintuitive claim is higher than "it's just obvious, trust me".

2) There was a different monetary system in the early 1900s. The lessons learned about it might not apply to a fiat system. Lending, credit & and the nature of money all work differently now.

3) If the problem was wild swings, then the lessons to be learned were in how to moderate the booms. There needs to be a bit more explanation about how increasing the money supply does that, and whether it dampens the booms more than it helps the busts. Smoothing the cycle is a mistake if it lowers trend growth.

4) Lack of evidence cited. "we discovered" is handwaving the important part. I suspect that is like "discovering" means in the political sense where politicians lie about something obvious as cover for a policy that they want.

5) Ignoring technological innovation and all the oil that has been used over the last 100 years. It is likely that the dramatic reduction in human suffering is totally unrelated to inflation policy.

[jdsully]

We actually had a rare experiment to revalidate this in the 2008 recession. The US went with money printing and inflation while the EU chose austerity. The result was the EU suffered a prolonged and deep multi-year recession while the US had one of the longest growth periods in its history.

Economics as a field has lots of issues with respect to lack of validation. But this is one of its major successes and is repeatedly backed by empirical evidence.

[roenxi]

> ...the US had one of the longest growth periods in its history...

How are we measuring this? Because from 2007 -> 2019 US nominal GDP is up 50% and the M2 was up 102%. I don't think this argument that keeping price inflation contained to assets rather than consumer goods justifies calling it a period of growth. Someone is collecting all this money and it doesn't look like it is people who earn wages.

The US debt/GDP ratios have also crossed lines where there isn't even room to pretend they are going to come down again voluntarily. US debt to GDP is out of control.

The US doesn't look like it is coming out of a long period of growth. If that were true it is surprising how much trouble it is having covering its bills, and giving money to already wealthy asset owners isn't helping.