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by lukeitup 1982 days ago
Electric cars for the vast majority is not too far away. Petrol cars will still exist, but just as super sports car for enthusiasts.
2 comments

Widespread adoption for small and medium family car duties is looking really good right now - They're almost a no-brainer for any 2-car family already, but somewhat held back by the 'new and unfamiliar' hump. There is still some way to go for any one-car household that wants to be able to make longer trips a few times a year (and is not willing to rent for those occasions, which although possible is an option I doubt many will opt for).

Large family vehicles on the other hand, there are a few hybrids that fit the bill but none of them are stand-out and the additional mechanical complexity is (rightfully) giving folks pause. The early prius for example got it right and was quite reliable, later iterations unfortunately have not lived up to the reputation it built. But then there's also rural car ownership where fewer, longer-range trips are the norm. Not much adoption to be seen there for very good reasons, neither the cars nor the charging infrastructure is suitable.

Depreciation is a kicker, also. Early adopters are finding that with the rapid progress on range/features and manufacturers chasing lower RRPs to get more adoption, when they come to trade up to something newer the value of their early purchases is lower than a similarly-aged ICE.

All of this is still good progress, but I think we're at least a decade if not several away from ICE being pushed into a niche. Plus without some breakthroughs in battery tech, there's only so far into the market things can go. Fortunately some promising stuff seems to be on the horizon i.e. solid state.

Every Tesla owner I know was a 2 car family reassured by the fact that their other car was ICE that they could use for long trips. Once they got the Tesla it became the vehicle used for all long trips. There are very few destinations that aren't within 250 miles of a supercharger and do not have at least a 115V plug available to recharge the car while you're at the destination.

And as far as I'm concerned a Y is a large family vehicle. It's no Escalade, but it's larger than our small minivan. If you disagree, there are some large trucks and SUV's coming in 2021/2022.

Depreciation is a kicker all right, but in the other direction. All actively cooled electric cars (IOW everything except the Leaf) depreciate a lot slower than a gas car. And that's just going to accelerate. Imagine trying to sell a 2020 ICE car in 2030. 98% of 2020 cars are ICE, but in 2030 the majority of new car purchases are going to be electric. Buyers of used cars want basically the same thing as buyers of electric cars, so the small number of available electrics are going to be in high demand.

I think the super sports cars are actually turning electric faster than their cheap counterparts?