[weff_]

>the discipline is all of 20-30 years old.

How do you define software engineering such that it's 20-30 years old? Why isn't it 50 years old? I ask because I've heard the argument that software engineering is a young discipline but it feels like you're really stretching it with those 20-30 years.

>When the S-curve of hardware progress flattens, software engineering will gain in importance.

But a lot of software engineering issues are entirely divorced from the underlying hardware. So I'm not sure how the shape of hardware has any significant bearing to our current situation.

>Engineering is very much about the accumulation of experience

I would argue that we actually know a ton about how to build software. It's just that it's not really being taught or valued or applied. I would argue that's an important distinction because it strengthens the analogy of electrical engineer vs electrician. So it's more about just an accumulation of experience.

[spiffytech]

> But a lot of software engineering issues are entirely divorced from the underlying hardware. So I'm not sure how the shape of hardware has any significant bearing to our current situation.

To play devil's advocate with the other's position, even just over the time I've been in software since the early/mid 2000s I've seen things shift a number of times as new hardware creates new demands from our software or obsoletes old development struggles. PC RAM capacities rising 100x from 20+ years ago, more operations coming over on a slow and flaky WAN from untrusted devices, fewer people tolerating apps that only work on the tower PC stuck on their desk, more apps expected to sync state across devices because they're cheap enough we can own a bunch of them, use cases we learned to handle with plugged-in tower PCs adapting to power-draw-sensitive mobile devices, mobile devices being 1.5GHz instead of 16HMz, CPUs becoming fast enough that performance is often a footnote concern for whether to implement crypto, dedicated AI microchips changing what's possible on-device...

All of these seem like very reasonable justifications to rethink the way we build software, to change what's standard practice or to invent new tools that solve old problems in a modern context. To some degree the clock on when our industry starts accumulating stable knowledge won't start ticking until these kinds of changes stop happening.

[weff_]

>All of these seem like very reasonable justifications to rethink the way we build software, to change what's standard practice or to invent new tools that solve old problems in a modern context. To some degree the clock on when our industry starts accumulating stable knowledge won't start ticking until these kinds of changes stop happening.

But we already have stable knowledge that's simply not considered valuable. Your list of changes over the decades is of course a change but I don't understand why the attitude is "unless things stay stable over the next 30 years, there's no point in trying".

All those SOLID, agile, TDD, DDD, micro-services memes that are being implemented so superficially and cargo-cultishly are actually grounded in a real understanding that has a context, constraints, and trade-offs. The issue is that superficial and cargo-cult application. "Software engineers" that decide they're going to do micro-services without understanding what it solves, how it solves it and what they're trading off. And a business that doesn't care or know enough to ask for better. Maybe they don't need better! Maybe it's ok to slap together and the product will be equally mediocre whether the devs use cargo-cult pattern X or not. Maybe the quality doesn't matter that much to the business. In which case the devs being hired also don't need to actually know that much software engineering. In which case maybe the idea of electrical engineer vs electrician makes sense here too.