[kyriee]

Things can stay the same way for a long time, especially since, as you point out, governments now have large scale surveillance/ controls tools.

That doesn’t mean that things will be going well for these populations. You might just have a lot of death and suffering that will be ignored or hidden form the wider population.

You might also have important declines in life expectancy, wellbeing and happiness.

So, sure, a system can be robust and stay in place for a long time, doesn’t mean it won’t suck.

[sheefrex]

This reminds me of a part of Toynbee's framework for civilisational decline. If the leaders of a society stop being creative, they can no longer lead by inspiration and example and so need to start to dominate to retain and exert power. Maybe you could see censorship as part of that, but it's a bit early to tell for sure.

But what's more interesting is what he says comes after: in reaction to a dominant leadership, the masses withdraw their loyalty and start to devise new religious forms (or maybe repurpose old ones). So a growing religious fervour could be a sign of things going wrong. I don't think we see that yet, but it could be something to keep an eye out for if people lose faith in the power of politics to improve their situation.

[adamcstephens]

“If” people lose faith in the power of politics to improve their situation? A good portion of the US has lost that faith.

I’d also argue that our leaders have lost their creativity. The real test will be over the next two years. The Democrats have that long to show they can rekindle creativity that will help people. If they don’t, I fear Trump may turn out to be a leading indicator to much worse demagoguery.

[sheefrex]

I'm not from the US so I thread hesitantly here.

But it seems to me that there is still a lot of energy from the population at large being devoted to politics, such as with the higher turnout in the last presidential election. When that starts to decline, such as when people just can't be bothered to vote, will be the real sign they no longer have faith in politics.

I think you are right regarding creativity – but that is the case across the West it seems to me.

[runsWphotons]

Some people are attributing the Georgia senate race outcomes to the fact that many republicans didn't bother to vote in the special election (because they heard it was "rigged"). If those people don't vote again then we will see the US head in the direction you mention. I also think you can't look at 2020 and not see increased religious fervor everywhere (in reply to comment above).