[joshmarlow]

> people are profoundly evidence based. If there hasn't been a war in 30 years, then they assume there will not be a war next year no matter how the background is changing.

I model this differently - people are very conservative about narrative change. I feel it works more generally.

Examples:

If we've had peace for 30 years, then war seems impossible.

If we've had government fiat currency for a centuries or more, then of course cryptocurrencies are a joke.

If we've been on the gold standard for long enough, then of course that's how money should work.

[travisjungroth]

Yeah, “first principles” is such a SV cliche, but it’s very powerful for getting around this.

I think the pendulum can swing too far the other way, though. People imagine a blank slate, but we don’t live in a blank slate, so you’re essentially imagining a fantasy world. Or, you just end up recreating the old world in the new one but worse.