[foxyv]

"Causes of Civil War are also, that the Wealth of the Nation is in too few mens hands, and that no certain means are provided to keep all men from a necessity either to beg, or steal, or be Souldiers." - William Petty

While this is a quote about civil war, it points out a key fact. A country with a strong middle class is much less likely to send its children to war over stupid things. Even the USA barely sent 177,000 troops to Iraq and, despite a jingoistic upswell from 9/11, it was still terribly unpopular.

In my opinion, if you want peace, study poverty.

[saiya-jin]

Richer folks also tent to study more and have say more options to expand their mind to various views, cultures and places. Far harder to manipulate/outright brainwash those into some patriotic bullshit about defending your home from those evil bad guys.

Unless you force drafts with hard punishments for those avoiding of course, but such an army would have very low morale not only these days.

[jjk166]

There's a reason why the draft let people pay someone else to take their place - if the wealthy thought they would find themselves in the trenches too then we would never send forces overseas.

[captainredbeard]

It's an inversion of history, in some ways, as typically the elite were responsible for much of the fighting and defense of the land (e.g. Medieval England).

[ip26]

I would nudge your course slightly. Instead of simply poverty, economic opportunity. In poverty, with no economic opportunity, war is your only opportunity.

[loceng]

Brilliant. I'll take this one step further, if you want peace, study health.

[jhpriestley]

A lot of the great wars of history have been instigated by rich countries - modern USA, Nazi Germany / Imperial Japan, Spanish Empire, British Empire, Napoleonic France, Roman Empire.

This is my qualitative sense from studying history, and it seems to hold up quantitatively based on wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll

[nicbou]

I can't speak for the other nations, but Nazi Germany was a very poor country. The standard of living in Germany was relatively bad, in no small part because of the post-war economic turmoil.

I submit the first few chapters of Wages of Destruction as my source. I am totally unqualified to summarize it, but it's shock full of data that support this thesis. It's a really good book.

[foxyv]

Totally buying that book now. One of my most memorable classes back in college was Economics of War. While I'm sure Economics isn't the only reason for wars, it seems to be one of the big ones.

[jhpriestley]

I'd be curious to know more, I'll try to take a look at that book when I get a chance. Are you saying, though, that Nazi Germany was very poor relative to its neighbors (e.g. France, Poland, Italy) or relative to the world at the time (e.g. Mexico) or in an absolute sense (widespread extreme poverty, lack of basic necessities of life)?

[nicbou]

The comparisons in the book are to Britain, France and the United States.

It's an excellent book if you're into economics. It gives you a much better understanding of Germany's hand, and how it affected its politics.

[foxyv]

Wealthy nations are definitely more likely to engage in war. Especially if there is something to be gained from it.

However, I'm not referring to the wealth of the countries themselves, but the concentration of wealth within them. Both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were desperately poor with a starving citizenry. Germany from paying reparations completely devaluing their currency and Japan from a lack of natural resources. The empires of the 18th and 19th century would be third world states by our standards. Life was cheap and people dying en masse wasn't a big deal.

Modern USA hardly even engages in full scale warfare since Vietnam. Now we have a few limited engagements against small countries without any real backers. Even then the tiny US losses from those wars has killed our taste for them. Even Donald Trump is disengaging from them.

It's hard to send a bunch of people to die when they are the ones holding the wealth of your nation. It's much easier to send the poor huddled masses if they exist.

[jhpriestley]

Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany were major industrial centers with large cities, educated populations, newspapers, trains, etc. They were vastly richer than peasant societies like China or Mexico.

For a somewhat objective example, look at the life expectancy around those years ... Japan and especially Germany are near the top both before and after the war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_life...

Modern USA hardly even engages in full scale warfare since starting one of the deadliest wars of the late 20th century, except for the time we started the deadliest war of the 21st century?

Your reasoning strikes me as kind of post-hoc, but maybe I'm mistaken .. could you say more precisely what you think causes countries to go to war, in a way that I could take a random country and see if it fits the criteria?

[foxyv]

To say what I think causes a country to go to war would take a book, and NOT a short one. Causing a war seems depressingly easy. In fact the relative peace we have been living in the past half century is exceedingly unusual.

In this instance, I'm talking about preventing war. A major factor is ensuring that those most responsible for paying for the war in taxes and blood (Lower and middle classes) have the wealth and the power to say no. (Convincing them that NO is the right answer is another thing!)

The wealth of the countries themselves is not necessarily the wealth of the people who live within them. Take a look at the so called "Banana republics."

I don't know exactly what you disagree with in my reasoning or what exactly is ad-hoc but I always love to talk about it.

Now, to address a few of the facts above:

Japan and Germany were both desperately poor following World War I. It was only after significant military expansion that they reached the prosperity you mention above. Japan gained most of their wealth through their expansion during the Showa era and consecutive wars.

Nazi Germany started from the poverty of 1933 with the suspension of civil liberties after the burning of the Reichstag. Their economic success was mostly spurred by efforts to gear up their military. By that point it was too late for any middle class to object and they hardly had the power to avoid being sent to concentration camps.

China makes us all look like pikers when it comes to war. Mao Zedong and the Chinese Nationalist party before him engaged in mass killings to make your blood turn cold. The modern PRC is the result of almost constant wars consolidating the region we now refer to as "China." Before the 20th century, the countries that make up modern China were engaged in almost constant warfare.

As for Mexico, they barely have anyone to go to war with anymore. In fact, part of the reason there is a wall between the US and Mexico in Nogales is because of a war between the two about 100 years ago after World War I.

Mexico seems to mostly be wrapped up in insurrections and criminal organizations lately though. I wouldn't be surprised if some intelligence agency cooked up most of Mexico's problems during the 1960s to keep them weak and it's just been burning since then. Sort of a Cold War toxic waste spill... But that's pure speculation of the quality used in light fiction.