|
|
|
|
|
by stopping
1977 days ago
|
|
Well, let's use the CDC estimates for comparison: Estimated flu infections per season: ~25,000,000
Confirmed COVID cases last 12 months: ~22,000,000
Estimated COVID cases using 7x reporting ratio (CDC): ~154,000,000
If we compare CDC estimates for both diseases, COVID is 6 times more infectious than the flu. So, CFR doesn't tell the whole story, and it is disingenuous to pretend that it does. I think your original comment calculated an estimated CFR of 0.278% for COVID (253k deaths divided by 91M cases by end of November), while the estimated CFR for the flu is 0.16% (40k deaths divided by 25M cases per season). Using these numbers, the CFR of COVID is 1.7 times that of the flu. But, when multiplied by the infectiousness, it kills 10 times as many people. A comparison of the absolute death toll matches this result: Estimated flu deaths per season: ~40,000
Confirmed COVID deaths last 12 months: 360,000
Note that the number of COVID deaths is under-representative because several months accounted for a period of low-spread, whereas flu is already endemic in the population. COVID was roughly considered widespread in April, so that's 9 months of full-on proliferation with 356,000 deaths. Extrapolating for the next three months projects ~475,000 deaths from April 2020 thru March 2021. This is probably an underestimate because if the next two months are like December (as projected), we'll hit just over 500,000 deaths. Now, we don't even know how many COVID deaths are unreported, but for the sake of argument we can just pretend that this is negligible.So, even a modest estimate of projected deaths also confirms that COVID over 10 times deadlier than the flu in absolute terms. |
|
I've been to many large parties, I went to 3 Stop the Steal protests (and came into contact with probably 10,000 people easily), I never wear a mask, I take no precautions and I'm fine.