[dionidium]

> I think perhaps we're not on the same page about the central hypothesis.

Yes, I agree. I think your response here shows that we're actually closer in agreement than it first seemed. That's my fault, I think. I don't think the lead hypothesis is bunk. (My initial comment perhaps made it seem like I was saying otherwise.) It has a lot of explanatory power. I also don't think we're in exactly the same position we were in the 90s, for lots of reasons.

But I do think the lead hypothesis lulled a lot of people into repeating the claim about falling crimes rates for so long that many of them have forgotten to check to see if it's still true. And while there are lots of interesting debates to be had about why homicides have been higher recently, the fact is that they have been!