[IMTDb]

It will be interesting to see how the bike usage will survive post-pandemic. Anecdotal experience in my social circle: Many people bought a bike just to keep active during the pandemic measures. Many justified the "somewhat impulsive" spending by hoping to use it for short commute/transportation needs in the future. Most bike have been collecting dust in a garage for several month, after the first three "bike excursion", the conversion rate is close to 0%.

[walrus01]

Bicycle enthusiasts I know predict that there will be a glut of barely used, higher-end road bikes and components for sale in 6-12 months from now, after people realize that their impulsive $3500-6000 purchase was not the best idea ever. I'm not even talking about really high end stuff, basically what you would get if you walked into a Trek, Specialized or Giant dealer in spring 2020 and bought a full carbon frame road bike with mechanical 105 groupset on it. No Di2 or whatever.

[8fGTBjZxBcHq]

I live in a big city with a lot of tech workers and white collar professionals so plenty of disposable income.

Just from talking to people out riding this summer it seems like a lot of people bought bikes they could technically afford but were way above their preferred price range simply due to availability.

What people wanted was $500 bikes but there were only $2500 bikes so that's what they got. It's not like they're stupid or even necessarily made a bad choice. They wanted a bike and got the bike they could get.

[midnightclubbed]

I wonder if this will negatively impact mid-tier bike sales in 2-3 years time? Some of those riders would have bought a $500 bike, realized how much fun they were having and then upgraded. A $2500 bike is unlikely to be upgraded for a good while longer.

Not being able to dine out, take vacations, or go to concerts has put a lot of disposable income in the hands of a good chunk of the population this year.

[8fGTBjZxBcHq]

I kinda doubt it. A lot of those were bought by people who wouldn't have bought any bike this year or any year without the pandemic. So they were definitely not going to upgrade next year or whatever.

Some of those people are probably on bikes that don't fit that great due to availability and they'll be looking for better sizing as they get more into it.

And of course the majority probably won't get super into cycling but again they weren't going to either way so it's not really a "lost" sale.

Plus I mean it's kind of a running joke among bike people that you don't really upgrade like it's a piece of technology. You keep the old ones and just accumulate more as you go.

[low_common]

I'm betting on this too. I'm already seeing some 2019-2020 barely-used $5000 bikes going for $2500-3000 on second hand bike sites right now. Can't wait to scoop one in a few months. I'm saving up for a carbon frame with Di2 myself haha.

[midnightclubbed]

While supply struggles to catch up with demand (and with 'regular' order levels) the used bike market will command high prices. Unless those people who spent $6k on a bike 'need' the money they'll be looking for a premium price.

Once the market stabilizes the bike manufacturers and dealers will go back to offering generous trade-in and 'last years model' discounts and those impulse bikes will have to drop a lot off their original price to look like a bargain. I suspect it will look a lot like the US used car market where a new car is cheaper than the same thing with 20k miles - by the time you account for manufacturer promotional discounts and dealer haggling.

Also I'm not sure I'd want to roll the dice on any used carbon frameset or wheels. Are modern carbon frames less brittle than I am led to believe?

[aqme28]

That's interesting. I've heard differently here in NYC. I imagine the "stickiness" will vary based on things like local infrastructure.

Also it's the winter right now-- a historically low biking season. Your friends might pick it up again in the spring.