If they swap it daily/weekly/randomly/per event a counterfeiter would have to have every known variation on hand at the drop of a hat in order to reliably counterfeit it.
Yeah. Red/white looks like the pool of possible patterns might be relatively small, and you can carry 50+ rolls of retro reflective tape in a backpack. If you knew every variation it would be easy to carry them to an event, and then apply the correct one there.