[saiya-jin]

Wasn't this inspected by leading virus scientists and concluded that its way different to anything that lab ever found and there is no current technology to modify it so much? The lab isn't secretive about its stash of viruses they find in the wild IIRC.

I recall reading some interview with lead scientist in this lab few weeks ago someplace but can't find it now.

[neilsense]

The problem is that, if it did end up as a leak from a lab, then all current virus labs would come under much more scrutiny from the authorities as well as from the public in general.

So there is a good reason for labs to not publicly declare that this entire problem was caused by a research lab.

[divbzero]

Incentives for researchers in labs are not so clean cut. There is also strong motivation to expose the truth, not only because it’s the right thing to do but also for the reputation earned by being the one to expose the truth.

If there is any sign that the virus was indeed created in a lab I suspect we’ll hear about it in detail sooner or later.

[wk_end]

Someone on HN posted this a few days back https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug...

The science is over my head and it’s, yknow, some guy on the Internet so take it with a grain of salt, but it seems to present a pretty compelling case that SARS-CoV-2 is in fact very similar to two viruses the WIV would have had on hand, and that the way it’s structured looks an awful lot like a bunch of other chimeras the people there had built.

[astrange]

It's impossible to prove they didn't randomly mutate a virus until it reached its current state, so people who want a conspiracy theory are already falling back to that, Russell's teapot style. But there's also no reason to care if they did or not.

[sillycon-valley]

> But there's also no reason to care if they did or not.

I would liken it to Chernobyl if they did accidentally release it. If it wasn't natural then it could have been prevented, including the 2 million dead.

[earthboundkid]

No reason to care? If SARS-CoV-2 is a lab accident, the labs need to be shut down and heavily regulated before reopening if ever. There is plenty of reason to care.

Will we ever know for sure one way or the other? That seems less likely. If it is an accident, China will hide it forever. If it’s not, it will be hard to prove unless you find the intermediary host somehow.

[astrange]

Sure, but are you going to shut down a lab in China? I'm not. Essentially any discussion of this topic in English is a waste of time unless we're going to shut down the US CDC.

(Which I've lived next to most of my life and never got sick, so it seems fine.)

[sillycon-valley]

Political pressure is a thing. Just because you can't have a direct effect individually doesn't mean you can't talk about it.

We still talk and try to address climate change even though we can't do much to force China to change.

Also, the facts matter. If they did accidentally release it it they at least should be reprimanded by the world for it.

Movies should be written about it, don't let them forget.

Btw seen Chernobyl on Netflix? It's good.

[bart_spoon]

> Wasn't this inspected by leading virus scientists and concluded that its way different to anything that lab ever found and there is no current technology to modify it so much?

Yes, but this only refutes the notion that the virus was actively modified/developed in the lab. A lab-leak doesn't necessarily mean Covid-19 is some genetic monstrosity cooked up by the CCP. It includes the very real possibility that Chinese researchers gathering bat specimens for research and careless with their containment policy ended up being the source of the crossover into the human population. There isn't any scientific evidence that makes it more or less likely that the virus was contracted by some bushmeat vendor contacting the wrong bat than a virologist contacting the wrong bat. There is however, lots of circumstantial evidence that the lab-leak theory should at the very least be as strongly considered as anything:

1. The closest virus to SARS-CoV-2 that has been found in wild bats was in a species hundreds of miles away from Wuhan, and is known to have been studied at the viroligy lab in Wuhan. Its the equivalent of a crossover event occuring down the road from the CDC in Atlanta, even though the closest thing to an animal reservoir we've found is native to Ohio.

2. Every alternative animal reservoir has been debunked. Initially there were theories about snakes, and most prominently, pangolins. But the scientific community has pretty thoroughly determined these are unlikely.

3. The lab in question raised alarms even prior to the pandemic and 2020. International inspectors wrote memos dating back years expressing concern with the level of cleanliness and standards at the lab.

4. The Chinese government has been extremely unhelpful, if not actively working to hinder, efforts to discover the source of the virus. They refused to allow WHO inspectors into the country in the early days of the pandamic, they systematically purged the wet market initially believed to be the source of the outbreak, over the protests of the scientific community as it would make it very difficult to trace potential reservoirs. And they to date have not let WHO teams into Wuhan to investigate. In fact, the WHO has been negotiating for a year and was supposed to have a team given access this week, only for China to balk at the last moment due to claims about visa processing.

Obviously this doesn't amount to a smoking gun in any respect. There is still a substantial probability of no lab-leak. But there has been a tendency to dismiss the theory of a lab-leak in part because it's been conflated with a genetically engineered conspiracy theory, and in part due to politics. I think the fact that populists like Trump insisting on associating the virus with the Chinese government has led to reflexive dismissals of a potential lab leak as conspiracy.