[yyyk]

>> "Because Iran signed the NPT"

>In 1968.

So old agreements don't mean anything? I support laying down old grievances, but going back on old agreements is usually undesirable, especially after having no objections all this time. Half the international treaties are older than that, which ones are 'safe'?

>> "How many of those are the result of Iranian involvement?" >They didn't invade the country.. plunging the country into chaos

Iran sure tried to between 1982 and 1988. And quite a lot of the Iraqi chaos is their doing. They need a weak Iraqi government so their militia can create a state within the state.

>That's blood money, not an apology.

Iran agreed to it. When Iran shot down its own citizens, it lied about the event until footage leaked out making the lie unsustainable.

>Maybe they wanted the Americans out so that the region could achieve some stability?

Right. The guys building substate militias everywhere, undermining half the states in ME really care about stability.

>the US has their [SA] back Which is why the US really helped them after Iran attacked their oil facilities. Not.

>they're probably looking for the security of a nuclear deterrent.

They are the one openly calling for the elimination of one ME state, and the overthrow of a half dozen regimes on the other. If they want security they should look at their own actions. Or perhaps the 'security' the Iranian regime is looking for is being able to attack others without fear of interference from the West.

[phobosanomaly]

I'm not arguing that Iran is the best country ever, who does only nice things and only hugs their neighbors.

I'm arguing that when you weigh Iran's activities in the Middle East alongside U.S. activities in the region over the last 30 years or-so, Iran really doesn't look like the boogeyman it's made out to be.

As a result, when viewing each other as perhaps within the same order of magnitude on the morally outrageous activities scale, the two countries could maybe leave behind the tired old mutual hatred routine that has played itself out since 1979.

A big part of that could be the United States extending an olive branch, apologizing for a few things, letting a few things go, and not simply pointing fingers and rattling sabers at them for cheap political points. The U.S. should be able to look around, realize that they have more important stuff to worry about, and embrace Iran as an economic partner like Europe and China have done.

It's ok for the U.S. to take the first step and extend an open hand. Go to the Wikipedia page on the 'Reactions to the September 11 attacks.' The Iranians deserve it on the basis of their behavior in the early days after 9/11, and the help they gave the U.S. in the early days of the Afghan War. They're not bad people, and have expressed a great deal of kindness to the United States in times of vulnerability.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_September_11_...

Push soft power aggressively, offer a more prosperous alternative, and you'll pull the damn rug right out from under the hard-liner's justification for their hold on power.

If the U.S. has learned anything from Cuba, it should be that the stupid 60-year embargo didn't do anything but keep the Cuban people poor and bitter, and the Castro brothers in power.

Our current policy is something dragged up from the Carter administration. It's not the seventies anymore.

More GitHub. Less John Bolton.

[yyyk]

Despite having far less power, the Iranian regime's ME body count is higher than any other country - even if we blame Iraq solely on US. Letting those fanatics have nukes would be a mistake. But lets put that aside.

How did the 'engage economically to change the regime' policy work with China and Russia? For that matter, did Cuba change at all after Obama's attempt? These policies were a complete failure - the regimes got stronger, yet the drivers of conflict remained. Eventually the same old frosty relations returned.

Engagement fails when it is not reciprocal. The economics did not encourage the regimes to get more moderate - rather the reverse. In order for true change in relations to happen, the other side has to commit themselves to some change too. Unfortunately, the Iranian regime is ideologically committed to its current policies, and refusing to discuss any matters except maybe nuclear. They are definitely not willing to apologize or let things go. I see no real prospects for engagement until this changes.

[phobosanomaly]

> "How did the 'engage economically to change the regime' policy work with China and Russia?"

China and Russia didn't engage economically to change the regime. They did it to make money.

> "For that matter, did Cuba change at all after Obama's attempt?"

YES! When Obama engaged Cuba, the entire political calculus of the country changed almost overnight.

"As Obama began softening U.S. policy toward Cuba, the island signaled openness to reform under the new leadership of Fidel’s brother, Raul. Facing an aging population, a heavy foreign debt load, and economic hardship amid the global downturn, Raul Castro began liberalizing Cuba’s state-controlled economy in 2009. Reforms included decentralizing the agricultural sector, relaxing restrictions on small businesses, opening up real estate markets, allowing Cubans to travel abroad more freely, and expanding access to consumer goods. Cuba’s private sector swelled as a result, and the number of self-employed workers nearly tripled between 2009 and 2013.

Obama and Raul Castro surprised the world in late 2014 by announcing that their governments would restore full diplomatic ties and begin to ease more than fifty years of bilateral tensions. The historic moment marked the culmination of eighteen months of secret diplomacy brokered by Pope Francis in which the parties agreed to an exchange of prisoners, including Cuban intelligence officers and an American development contractor, among other concessions."

U.S. policy towards Cuba was turned 180 degrees in 2016 in a unilateral move by the U.S., so that ended any hopes of progress.

"As a candidate, Trump was fiercely critical of the Obama administration’s thaw with Cuba and he pledged to reverse course once in office. Despite maintaining diplomatic relations, Trump has largely delivered on his promise through policies that curtail trade and tourism, and target Havana’s purse strings."

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-cuba-relations

> "Engagement fails when it is not reciprocal"

Iran was very open to cooperation with the United States following 9/11, right up until they were included in the 'Axis of Evil.'

"In the aftermath of the attacks, the Iranian public responded with sympathy and their government with something resembling prudence. Tehran was the scene of spontaneous candlelight vigils by ordinary Iranians and a temporary suspension of the weekly chants of “death to America” by its official clergy. An array of Iranian officials, many with reformist political leanings, offered seemingly heartfelt condolences to the American people, and even the hardest-line elements of Iran’s leadership briefly summoned the moral decency to denounce Al Qaeda and the use of terrorism against Americans."

...

"The initial willingness to cooperate with the U.S. military campaign against the Taliban eventually bloomed into a wide-ranging, historic cooperation between the two old adversaries that included the only sustained, officially sanctioned dialogue since the negotiations of the hostage release in 1981. Logistical cooperation from Tehran facilitated use of Iranian airspace as well as tactical assistance in establishing supply lines. Equally vital was Tehran’s political collaboration, as the Iranians had close and long-standing relations with the Taliban’s primary domestic opponent, the Northern Alliance."

...

"The “Axis of Evil” speech produced a furious response from Iranian leaders across the political spectrum, and incited a similarly fierce debate in Washington. It did not, however, result in the termination of the bilateral dialogue over Afghanistan, as Tehran demonstrated its capacity to prioritize interests over outrage or ideology. But it marked an across-the board American repudiation of Iran’s ruling elites, one that would become more pronounced over the course of the subsequent year, and a deliberate U.S. embrace of the idea of galvanizing popular opposition against the Iranian regime. In the months that followed the speech, the Bush White House strove to align themselves with regime opponents through public statements and other efforts to expedite political change inside the country."

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/11_iran...

(It's from a Brookings whitepaper, but it jives with the gist of The Twilight War by David Crist)

The U.S. keeps turning its back on both countries when progress begins to be made, based on old animosities left over from the Cold War. It's ridiculous. Why does the wealthiest country on the planet need to be in a pissing contest with a small Caribbean island nation over something that happened under the Kennedy administration? Or a theocracy on the other side of the planet over something that happened under Jimmy Carter? My god, what's the point?

[yyyk]

>China and Russia didn't engage economically to change the regime. They did it to make money.

The West engaged Russia and China to make the regimes liberalize. It was really common to hear that a Chinese middle class will bring in democracy. The West got nothing, and the regimes only became stronger and more oppressive.

>YES! When Obama engaged Cuba, the entire political calculus of the country changed almost overnight.

Your long quotes are actions before agreement or negotiation, and it was done as a result of economic hardship (as they themselves acknowledge). Alleviating these hardships did not lead to liberalization, but seemed to have removed the impetus to make more changes.

>Iran was very open to cooperation with the United States following 9/11, right up until they were included in the 'Axis of Evil.'

Right, people who scream worse on a weekly basis and are proudly calling themselves enemies of the US were really offended.

They were willing to tactically let the US off their enemy. But friendly relations require a firmer basis then temporary cynical cooperation - they require the regime to change a few of the policies that the US finds abhorrent, and for that there was zero willingness (They even kept their nuclear program running until the Iraq war spooked them to temporarily shut it off)

> Why does the wealthiest country on the planet need to be in a pissing contest with a small Caribbean island nation over something that happened under the Kennedy administration? Or a theocracy on the other side of the planet over something that happened under Jimmy Carter?

The US got over all that long ago. As early as the 80s the US sold weapons to Iran! It's that the US has a problem being friendly to totalitarian murderous regimes which also have an aggressive foreign policy and officially declare themselves anti-US.

The first makes engagement difficult to square with US values, and leads domestic voter blocks to really oppose engagement. The second makes engagement difficult to square with US interests. The third is just an extra insult.

Friendly relations require the regimes to change policy on at least one measly point. China remained oppressive, but its 'peaceable rise' was really peaceable for a short time, so the US kept friendly relations. Now that China isn't 'peaceable', Biden can't afford to go back to the way things were.

Had Cuba moderated their domestic policy, Hispanics wouldn't have been so susceptible to GOP ads this November. Now, Biden can't risk losing them, so you can forget about a new agreement with Cuba.

[phobosanomaly]

Our discussion has become fragmented enough that I don't think either of us knows what we're arguing for or against.