[cameldrv]

The real issue IMO was that the lockdown wasn't strict enough, or enforced. Many, many stores were open, many workplaces were deemed essential, masks were not generally worn in the first phase of the lockdowns, and while indoor dining at restaurants was closed, indoor dining at your friend's house was wide open.

The three places that I know of that have gotten cases to zero are China, New Zealand, and Australia, and they all used lockdowns that were far stricter than in the U.S.

The problem is that a soft lockdown doesn't bring R low enough to eradicate the virus quickly, and people won't stomach it dragging on for months. I also don't believe that it can be done on the honor system. There must be police writing tickets or worse for violations, or there is a segment of the population that will ignore whatever measures that are enacted. Unfortunately sometimes these are even identifiable groups of people that all socialize together in violation of health orders, so the virus will spread within these communities regardless of whatever the governor puts on a piece of paper and makes a speech about.

[tsjq]

Interesting points indeed. On the other hand, India had a hard lockdown for 6-8 weeks, and yet the numbers zoomed up weeks after that. And now, the numbers are magically going down despite absolute carelessness widespread. Inexplicable

[crx07]

The numbers start going down quickly once infections have been so prolific that crowd immunity is present.

I live in Texas, but I'm sure I personally infected no fewer than 10,000-20,000 people last March, including the sorority that purportedly brought it back from Mexico during spring break. No doctor wanted to listen and no hospitals would test me even after I begged some of the best providers in the region. It wasn't until almost 9 months later that the mistake was acknowledged, and it's highly likely that community spread existed even in the US in November 2019 or even October 2019 just based on retrospective serology studies.

Places with poor hygiene controls like India have likely had far, far more infections than anyone even can imagine. That might be one of the first places to be immune.