[MilnerRoute]

The "likely vector" would be the millions of peasants living near bat caves in rural China (who actually have already been shown to have antibodies to bat viruses). And some of whom traveled to the market.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/8417296...

So I would upgrade that quite a bit from "moderate-low." (One of the researchers in this NPR article seems to rate it as an obvious suspect, so I'd call that "high likelihood.")

[travisoneill1]

Those millions of peasants living near bat caves would have traveled to thousands of markets all over China, but the virus originated at the one market in China that is basically across the street from a virus lab? It's not impossible, but my money is on the lab.

[MilnerRoute]

The lab was not "across the street." It was a full seven miles away.

https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/04/01/covid-19-bioweapon/

[collyw]

A whole 7 miles away? Wow It's almost as far as i go to my office every day. Or to some shops in the town centre. Or various other "everyday activities".

[RyEgswuCsn]

If Wikipedia is to be trusted [1]:

"AIDS was first clinically reported on June 5, 1981, with five cases in the United States"

"Both HIV-1 and HIV-2 are believed to have originated in non-human primates in West-central Africa and were transferred to humans in the early 20th century."

If HIV, a relatively less infectious virus, can make its way across the Atlantic Ocean to land on America shores, I wouldn't be surprised SARS-CoV-2 could do the same. Another explanation could be that SARS-CoV-2 is a lot more common than we think --- many people might have caught it before but it didn't manage to spread, but this time the virus just hit the jackpot.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS#History

[Amezarak]

According to the article, the bat caves are nearly a thousand miles away. It seems unlikely peasants were traveling a thousand miles for the purpose of visting the market.

It also presents some reasons why bat viruses on their own were unlikely to become as contagious as COVID, citing the example of RaTG13's discovery.

So the "zoonotic transfer from bats" theory requires an extraordinary new strain (possible!) to travel a thousand miles before spreading enough to be detected.

[Amezarak]

It’s too late to edit, but I’d like to ask downvoters to respond instead of downvoting. The submission references and contradicts the information provided in the GPs link and discusses how the politicization of the origin led to these organizations making much stronger statements than the evidence warranted. I cited some of the information the OP mentions that contradicts assertions made by the GP.

If I am wrong or misinformed, I would like to know it. The submission is an excellent article. I have no dog in this fight but it did shift the needle of uncertainty for me, particularly when I learned about prior leaks and the suppression of investigations in China. It’s a long article but worth the read.

[heidar]

Also not mentioned in the article but bats are in hibernation at the time of year when the spread started, making it even less likely.