[xapata]

> Yes but the amount of amber, gold, silver, etc. on Earth is a known unknown. There are presumably deposits of gold that we don't yet know about.

There's a difference between known unknown with high variance and known unknown with low variance. As I understand it, astrophysicists have a non-controversial model for how much gold is present on earth. Geologists probably have a reasonable model for how much gold is easily accessible.

[saalweachter]

The last time I looked into this, the mined gold supply seemed to be increasing at a fairly steady 2% per year, over the last N decades I was able to find good data for.

[xapata]

That may have more to do with the pace of mining investment than the total amount of gold, which won't change (until the next meteor impact).