[mchusma]

In this particular case the mRNA technology Moderna (and Pfizer) is completely new, these are the first two vaccines approved. Yes they spent a lot (including OWS money) to ramp production, all previous mRNA vaccine production was <1M doses per year in 2019 and before. So between Moderna and Pfizer, we are looking at probably 1.8 billion - 3 billion doses produced.

There are many genuine complaints about the vaccine ramp up, but this is one of the few cases where these numbers are a "good job".

This is why its so important for the FDA to give EUA to Astrazeneca now, that is a technology that can be scaled quickly. They should also encourage a readout now of J&J, which is almost certainly over the efficacy threshold and can also be scaled. With these two approvals, we can have enough vaccine for a 1st dose for everyone within the next 60 days.