[bpodgursky]

I addressed in my second sentence that I disagree with that prior. I understand the statistics perfectly well.

And my main point is that a 60% probability is in fact actionable in the real world, in a situation where you are forced to take action with incomplete information. Assuming you are running an ad campaign, you have to choose one of the two.

P=.95 still is an arbitrary threshold, even if it's a commonly used one.