[dragonwriter]

> The insurance industry is likely to make a greater profit in 2020 due to the pandemic. Consumers have deferred a lot of their medical procedures, but their premiums have stayed the same.

COVID will have drive up overhead, and also insurers will have COVID medical costs. If the net of the added medical costs of COVID and the reduced medical costs from deferring care is negative on medical costs, insurers will be driven over the 20% excess premiums cap and have to refund down; they don't get extra credit for COVID overhead.

If it increases medical costs in net, they'll have to pay the increased medical costs plus the increased overhead out of the same premiums, and so really lose.

The only way insurers win out of this is if medical costs are down enough to pay for the added overhead before hitting the 20% cap where refunds kick in.

(Or through external windfalls outside of the whole premiums and medical costs system, like if they manage to get forgivable PPP loans or something.)