[ncmncm]

I have long called certain people "Oracles of Wrong". If they are the same people, they can also be counted upon to be wrong on any issue of substance. So, anytime there is a decision to be made, look to them, and choose the opposite.

It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it.

In any big group of people known to each other, it is always easy to tell who the Oracles of Wrong are. (If you don't know, it might be you; but if it is, you are probably wrong about that, too.) I have had some decades to think about this, and identify other qualities of these individuals, besides their preference for wrongness. They are of above-average intelligence. They are typically upper-class; some wear a trilby. They prefer alternatives that are personally easy for them, requiring less change in habits or thinking. They have never experienced any substantial personal discomfort as a consequence of a wrong choice.

In cases of uncertainty, look to an Oracle of Wrong for anti-leadership.

[whatshisface]

>It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it.

Dichotomous choices almost never exist. It is very easy to be wrong on most issues, simply by speaking out random opinions every time you see a situation with more than two possible truths. Never miss an opportunity to call the outcome of a d20 roll and you'll be well on your way to being an anti-oracle.

[ncmncm]

Those are not the choices where Oracles of Wrong are useful.

When the number of choices is narrowed down to two, somebody who is only randomly wrong is just as likely to be right. But our Oracle can be counted upon to choose wrong with overwhelmingly greater than 50% accuracy.

[lolc]

The wise will know not to answer when both choices are wrong.

[uncledave]

This is my wife’s uncle. He does this all the time. If there’s one poop in a field he’ll step in it.

Recent failures include: no brand Chinese smartphone bricking on Christmas Day and losing all his photos because he didn’t want to pay for the Apple tax any more (he had an iPhone XR which is still fine!), spending more on Audi service in three years than he did on the car, garage wall collapsed after hiring someone who convinced him was respectable but came with no references, throwing his shit out of the pram at work followed by claiming victory on Facebook followed by being fired followed by being hired for an undisclosed lower sum elsewhere, setting up range extenders in his house while not understanding the problem and actually not even enabling them.

That’s just 2020. I’m slowly folding his experiences into my list of things not to do. He only gets away with it because he has some cash to fall back on which was inherited.

[mtVessel]

> Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it.

Cipolla's first law of stupidity[1]:

Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlo_M._Cipolla

[ncmncm]

If only C. Cipolla's literary heirs were not so assiduous at trying to erase his contribution. Re-post the article he explained his thesis in, and expect a nasty note from their lawyer.

Carlo himself, while he lived, welcomed re-publication. His heirs spit on his memory.

[davesque]

Sounds like George Costanza.

[Null-Set]

There is, of course, an xkcd on this topic. https://xkcd.com/2270/