[DoingIsLearning]

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

There is no direct air flight from Italy to Wuhan without going through Amsterdam Schipol or Beijing. There are no Shipping ports in inland Wuhan.

Do you truly believe it is a realistic scenario that a virus this infectious could traverse from northern Italy to Wuhan, Hubei, without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way?

If I am to put on my tinfoil hat this is exactly the sort of disinformation I would expect from CCP propaganda in order to fight US politician memes of the "China Virus".

[dathinab]

> Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Assuming that Wuhan is the Orginal point of infection and there not being any previous infections spreading it to some parts of china including (or mainly) Wuhan is the actual extraordinary claim.

> There is no direct ...

Doesn't matter people travel. My sister had during that time a roommate from China from a large city without any direct flights or port or similar if that would have been Wuhan here bringing the virus to Germany before any travel restrictions started would have been well in the area of possibitly (and no joke as far as I remember it actually was Wuhan but I'm not fully sure about and no Virus was transmitted in this case it's just an example that the argument why virus transmittance is unlikely is IMHO not making much sense)

EDIT:

> without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way?

1. There where other hotspots then Wuhan.

2. Detection and reporting of SARS-Cov-2 was initially not very responsive.

3. Look at how SARS-Cov-1 spread.

4. You just need a exchange student from Wuhan to Italy.

[TomSwirly]

> Do you truly believe it is a realistic scenario that a virus this infectious could traverse from northern Italy to Wuhan, Hubei, without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way?

Sure - I'm not quite sure what the issue is.

A single person X becomes infected mid-week in Europe. Monday they leave for China. The next Thursday, they have a business meeting in China where they are symptomatic but have suppressed obvious symptoms with OTC cold medication - who wouldn't if you flew thousands of miles for a meeting?

A dozen people sit in a room in Wuhan with some infected person for several hours.

---

> Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

An "extraordinary claim" is along the lines of UFOs, ghosts and goblins.

There are hundreds of millions of international passengers a year. That an unknown infectious disease could travel from Europe to Asia undetected is hardly an "extraordinary claim".

Pending any hard evidence at all, it can only be described as a hypothesis.

[mytailorisrich]

He's not making an extraordinary claim, just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts. In fact this is the most likely scenario (Wuhan was the first known outbreak but the virus does not originate from there)

Could we also stop dropping "CCP propaganda" everytime someone writes something others disagree with?

[DoingIsLearning]

> just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts

What facts support a European source for SARS-Cov2, that then stealthily traversed two continents, to then super spread in Wuhan, Hubei?

[stoon]

I heard from someone that works in the clothing industry that there are strong links between Italy and China, i.e. there are lots of chinese workers in Italy working in the textile industry. When the talk of the first lockdown was spreading, a lot of people got out and went to Italy. I think this is supported by the fact that the first outbreak in Italy occured in a lot of small towns and away from big cities, typical locations for industrial jobs.

[mytailorisrich]

Wuhan was the first recognised outbreak but it's most likely that the virus had been circulating in humans for some time before that. This is neither an extraordinary nor controversial claim.

Now, I believe that the claim about Italy was a bit tongue in cheek but at the same time it is reasonable based on facts and should be thought provoking:

We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and perhaps US iirc, at the same time, and perhaps before, the outbreak around that market in Wuhan, as early as November. (So, yes the virus did stealthily traverse continents, by the way)

Now, based on that why would the origin necessarily be Wuhan? Logically, the earlier the cases the closer they are from origin.

The origin of infectious diseases is always tricky to establish. After years we're still not sure about the origin of MERS and possibly SARS. It took decades to pinpoint that HIV appeared in the 1920s, almost 60 years before it can to the world's attention.

While it is still most likely that Covid-19 arose in China we do not know where and when.

[DoingIsLearning]

> We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and perhaps US iirc, at the same time, and perhaps before, the outbreak around that market in Wuhan, as early as November. (So, yes the virus did stealthily traverse continents, by the way)

Can you provide a peer-reviewed source that documents this timeline, you claim "established facts" but to my knowledge there aren't any?

> While it is still most likely that Covid-19 arose in China we do not know where and when.

On that we can both agree.

[matheweis]

In Italy; November 2019: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/news-sca...

In France; December 2019: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7196402/

[mytailorisrich]

First positive tests in France are end of December [1] [2](meaning the people caught the virus days or a week before that). Strongly suspected cases based on thoracic scanners are up to mid November [3].

In Italy people were contaminated even earlier than that, apparently [4].

These are not wholly surprising because, again it is likely that the virus had been circulating for some time in humans before it exploded and was detected. It is quite contagious but many people do not experience any symptoms or only mild, common symptoms, which IMO makes it relatively easy to go undetected until it goes out out of hands, as it did in Wuhan first.

It's good to ask for proof but then you should ask for proof of all claims, not only the ones you do not like.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

[2] https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-report...

[3] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-evidence-race-find-fr...

[4] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-...

[DoingIsLearning]

> "I would be very cautious," about these findings, said Dr. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco, who was also not a part of the study. The results "have to be confirmed with different antibody tests," that look for the prevalence of antibodies that target other parts of the coronavirus.

> His previous experience has shown that such antibody tests for the coronavirus' RBD can create a lot of false positives, Rutherford told Live Science. And because this is "such an unexpected finding," it should be confirmed with other antibody tests such as those that look for antibodies against another one of the coronavirus' proteins, an outer coat called a "nucleocapsid," which is also unique to the novel coronavirus, he said.

> Still, "it's not totally outside the realm of possibility," that the virus circulated in Italy earlier than thought. because there is a lot of travel back and forth between China and Italy, especially northern Italy, he said. But considering the earliest COVID-19 case in Wuhan was reported to be in November, "it really gives me pause to say let's really make sure we got this right before we try and explain it," Rutherford said. [0]

[0] https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-circulating-italy-ea...

[Woodi]

> Could we also stop dropping "CCP propaganda" everytime someone writes something others disagree with?

No, we can't drop "CCP propaganda" fact. Man, they put DOCTORS doing their job to prisons ! Actually we shoud be more concerned about such idiocy ! Where is logic in that ? Looks more like mentality from few hundreds years ago reborn in autocratic country. Communists usually give orders for achievements :>

But yes, as you pointed, not everything is "CCP propaganda" and such meme is often trown in unresponsible way.

And yes, pointing earlier cases in Europe is good to know too. But in Europe there was cases (x-rays photos, can't find info about dead cases) in September / November but in China there was EPIDEMY in early November. Still, all that is not a proof about origin of patient zero. And Wuhan could be it.

[bamboleo]

Codogno, the original Italian hotspot, has no airport. How do you explain that? The virus can travel without direct flights and, because you’re not infectious for a few days, you can meet plenty of people in the meanwhile without infecting them.