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by aparsons 2004 days ago
> "You'd have to sit in a meeting with Bill, and he's frighteningly brilliant. People throw around the word 'genius' all the time, and the way people say 'genius' is not accurate if you've met somebody who is a genius – somebody who, when you meet them, it seems like aliens are whispering in their ear because there's no way they could know these things otherwise. This is a different kind of a thing, and Bill's like that.

This pretty much describes the guy. I was at Microsoft during the final years of BillG being very hands-on with most core products (pre-lawsuit). I really wish I had worked with him more, but here is my anecdote that speaks to the guy’s brilliance:

My boss had gotten a fairly angry email from Bill sometime in 1995 if memory serves right. Chicago had taken much of his and Microsoft’s attention since the early 90s, that we didn’t see the internet coming.

When it came, nobody was alarmed. Bill had apparently gone on a learning tour of sorts shortly afterwards, but most of the people in the industry knew nothing about what the internet made possible. We knew you could share documents, and it was growing fast, and that Bill thought it was important. Nobody “got” the internet, just like nobody “got” the power of controlling the OS before Microsoft.

At the time, we were working on IIS (internet information service server) and a little behind schedule. Bill had also somehow caught wind of some Palo Alto startup talking to set top box companies to deliver an internet-connected OS (turned out to be WebTV, which we bought later) and was furious. Comes in, yells about how we can’t get the web resource model working, all that. Four letter words. Fairly typical angry boss rant. And then he collected himself and said something we thought was absurd - something akin to this: IIS and Internet Explorer will be Microsoft’s two most important products. We were struggling to get static HTML documents serving properly, and Bill goes on a monologue about how much of commerce will shift to the web, most video will be delivered online, we’d have free live video calling on handheld computers and the web as a platform would end Wintel. Thousands of machines running IIS that we could loan to web companies (sound familiar?).

Bill understood no matter how far we got with Windows, the days of a platform tied to an OS were numbered - in the same time period that Windows 95 was selling like hotcakes. There is no other person I think who could analyze situations objectively like that. It’s like if Steve Jobs launched the iPhone 3G and a month later gives Apple a speech on how the iWatch will kill it.

It was all absurd at the time - stuff of science fiction. Even a few years later during the dot com boom, much of it seemed far fetched.

Then Android and Chrome, iPhone, M1, AWS, and Amazon all happened, and I realized Bill was right. It took a little longer than predicted, but every single laughable thing the guy said that day turned out to be true. I really do think if it wasn’t for the anti trust case, Bill would have seen a lot of this through - for better or worse. It’s easy to look back and say Microsoft lacked the vision to succeed in the internet age - and it’s almost true - but Bill had formulated all this in a few weeks of “exploration”.

In a different universe, I think Microsoft abandons consumer Windows earlier than we can imagine, and builds “AWS” and “Chrome” around the IIS/IE combination. With reason to abandon the Wintel cash cow, IE may not have been so distastefully bad. Guess we’ll never find out though.

3 comments

In a different universe, I think Microsoft [..] builds “AWS” and “Chrome” around the IIS/IE combination. With reason to abandon the Wintel cash cow, IE may not have been so distastefully bad.

Instead, we would have TCP/IP replaced my Microsoft QUIC(tm), accompanied by a 40,000-page specification riddled with "just to what IIS does" explanations, thereby ensuring no other browser could ever emerge.

It’s possible. Steve Jobs said Microsoft lacked taste. But they were also able to build the Xbox, Zune, Surface etc. If they realized the internet was a consumer products, very likely they change the heading.

From what I heard, by 1999 they knew they had mispredicted their internet strategy, but everyone was too fearful of the US government to make drastic changes. One friend said they couldn’t mention competitors by name in their org. So they stuck to their guns and doubled down on enterprise servers and OSes. I don’t recall when MsSQL started, but it was another step in that direction.

I understand that we are looking at this from a position of strong bias, having the technology in front of us already. But surely smart engineers in that sector would be well aware of how easily science-fiction can turn into reality, having witnessed half a century of astounding developments? Did no one really take Bill's predictions that seriously at the time?
Lot of people understood it was going to be massive. But they understood it as “doing X on the internet”. Just like everyone was making “Uber for X” three years ago. Yahoo was yellow pages on the web. Viaweb was shopping. Broadcast was radio. All X on the web.

At the time, most web sites were official company sites (basically HTML ads). A few news sites (Bloomberg was an early one). Some research labs and universities.

When we started IIS, there were maybe 3 million internet-connected users worldwide, and the web server we were running couldn’t handle the traffic coming to Microsoft’s web site - that would be single digit QPS.

Bill not only comes in and says “video calling”. But also free, worldwide, and on a PDA. Making a video ad showcasing the concept back then would have cost more than building the product itself today. Everyone can predict the future, very few can predict the future with an error of +/- 5 years. Nobody will bet a company richer than god on it.

Some of my ex-Apple colleagues used to “joke” that Bill’s gift was to see a piece of technology, and hit the fast forward button, and Steve (Jobs)’s gift was to see the future and hit rewind to the present day. Both hit the button too hard at times (Apple Newton, Lisa, IIS, WebTV).

Bill saw the internet, and knew it was the platform of the future a week later. The OS didn’t matter, the chipmaker didn’t matter, the form factor didn’t matter. It was all about content and services at the edge.

Unfortunately for Microsoft - and fortunately for other companies - cannibalizing Windows wasn’t on the menu. It didn’t matter what Bill thought. There was the board, shareholders, Steve, Dave. Even rank and file employees would not be receptive - someone on every team was vesting enough stock to become a millionaire each week, why would you talk about changing course? It’s really true that after a certain size, your maneuverability is severely restricted. So they doubled down into trying to make Windows + IE the internet, and nearly succeeded.

Two things had to happen before others saw the same things Bill did. Javascript running in the browser (1997), and Google figuring out hardware didn’t matter on the server side (2000). Java was a token threat. Bill knew it would not be performant enough on clients for Applets to succeed. They had to rebuild their language to put every fixed-size object on the stack because sorting an array<int> on a typical machine took forever. That’s why Java still doesn’t have operator overloading. That Java battle would be on the server, and we didn’t have a good language to bring to the battle there. Wired and co loved to paint a picture of Microsoft v Java as Goliath v David. Not true - Java was a speedbump.

The real threat was dumb terminals (aka web browsers). Even today, the world could run on Mac OS / iOS and Safari. If Microsoft was okay with sacrificing Windows market share and instead controlled content and services, they would be much more valuable. OS wars ended in 1995 - I think we had prototype of Excel running inside IE by 1999. It wasn’t very usable, but was maybe 3 years of clock speed improvements away. Wait for 3 years and you have an incredible product. Nope - some people decided to pour more resources to tying IE to Windows. Idiotic strategy when a web browser at the time would be a two-week project since every OS kernel shipped networking primitives by now. Rendering HTML/XML was trivial.

Once the DOJ walked into Microsoft, it was all walking on eggshells from then on. More people saw the vision, but were too scared to act.

> and Google figuring out hardware didn’t matter on the server side (2000).

What do you mean by this?

Thanks for giving us the insider's perspective, I really appreciate it.
You’re very welcome. Always nice to walk down memory lane to an exciting era for the industry.

Fun office rumour from the time: MSFT offices were in Seattle, while most competitors were in California. Yet Bill and co always seemed to know what every new company - stealth mode or not - was up to.

Rumour was that Msft had bribed a lot of SV reporters to gather intel. Often in the cafes and computer clubs where people loved to talk.

When Clinton was elected, there was some government agency shakeup and lot of ex-FBI agents were available to contract. Quite a few VIPs’ security affairs (including Michael Jordan who was the biggest star in the world) were handled by these contractors. Story went that we’d hired a number of them into the competitor intel work. We’d known about Sun working on a user space VM since 1992.

No idea if these were true or just fair tales.

Bill Gates' "brilliance' was his extreme paranoia - always looking for a disruptor to his rent-seeking monopolies that pretty much stifled most creativity in the PC space for the better part of two decades. But he's certainly no genius. Geniuses leave behind a creative, ground-breaking legacy. Gates only legacy was to strangle that sort of creativity. So he's an anti-genius.