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by marta_weber 2005 days ago
The best part is really that Tesla has only competitive disadvantages. There is really nothing in Tesla that sets them apart. Yeah, they made electric cars popular, but other car manufacturers started to catch up and they have immense advantages, like brand lock-in and a long history of adapting and evolving to customer needs. And they were right not to jump into EV too quickly. It's a pretty unpredictable, developing market. Tesla got a head start, but at the end, they really have nothing going for them.

The stock is gonna crash so hard in a couple of years, I am sure someone will make a movie out of it. I might actually buy a good bunch of options against Tesla, if they reach far enough into the future.

4 comments

The value doesn't come from the fact that they make electric cars, it comes from:

The fact that they have a huge fleet of cars with cameras and sensors on the road feeding their ML models is a huge advantage.

Battery factories.

Supercharger network.

Elon's Following.

Edit: added following

AOL. Walled garden. Captive audience. Original content.
Tesla IMO is just less greedy. They provide class leading safety, range, acceleration, and don't nickle and dime you. The battery packs have generous lifetimes and they have an Apple like good (rwd), better (AWD), and best (AWD performance) setup.

Try to buy a Lexus, BMW, MB, etc and you get a huge laundry list of incompatible features that bundle in the options you want into expensive bundles. So much so that to get even the basic safety things like rear view cameras and decent headlights laws had to be passed and companies embarrassed with poor safety ratings because their headlights were unsafe at highway speeds and much worse than a Toyota Prius unless you bought the many $k package with the fancy headlights.

Want a reliable car that's likely to last a few 100k miles, 353 mile range, is one of the safest cars on the planet to drive, has a great charging networks, great headlights, generous interior room, and low cost per mile? Get a model 3 AWD for $48k, it's a hell of a deal, and that's assuming your state, city, and country have no incentives. Sure it's one of the "slow" Tesla's at 0-60 in 4.2 seconds, but still one of the quicker accelerating cars around.

I'd be hard pressed to name a #2. There's a nice Porsche, but it's like twice as much. The ford Mach e is somewhat similar, less range, less accel (at the same price), not as safe, and nowhere close on the charging network.

Chevy bolt is embarrassing in comparison, doesn't handle, doesn't accelerate, not as safe, nowhere close on range, not AWD, etc.

While I think Tesla is over valued, I feel your statement is one many made about Apple. That they just used commodity parts to create the iPhone. That the margins will be driven too small to maintain and they’ll never live up to their valuation.

Tesla has atleast a 3 year advantage, a very strong hold on battery production, extreme brand loyalty, and an iteration cycle that puts all other car companies to shame. They’ve caught an entire industry with their pants down.

Do I think Tesla is overvalued? Yes, but I find it laughable that you think Tesla has no competitive advantages. Off the top of my head I can think of their battery production + supply chain, direct sales to consumers, world class electrical engineering, best in class safety, and over the air software updates. All of those factors would be extremely hard or impossible to duplicate at an existing car manufacturer.