| > 3. It may actually benefit China, as it shifts from an export driven to a consumption driven economy to have a large population of idle old people spending money on the economy, it means that the government can grow the economy by directing more funds to people rather than to hard assets whose ROI becomes increasingly dubious. China has much worse social security than many other countries. Chinese retirement pension is expected to dry up by 2035 [1], and close to half of the population earn only 1000 RMB (140 USD) per month [2] (it is reported that 900 million earn only 2000 RMB per month, 1/3 of the poverty line of US). This means there will not be a large population of idle old people spending money on the economy, but they will take up resources to support. (That’s the reason behind the proposal to delay the retirement age [3], but as the article Chinese Demography explains, this barely changes the overall trend.) [1]: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3020602/c... [2]: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3086678/c... [3]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-29/china-sti... The aging and poor population, plus the excess production and over-investment in the last decades, means China must grow without the high GDP growth. This might be possible elsewhere, but would be difficult for CCP, and increasingly so when the employment reality hits [4]. [4]: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/30/as-chinas-economy-picks-up-n... I think when people predict the future of China, they are extrapolating the previous economic growth since 2000. But such growth is typical for an export-driven economy, and the Chinese numbers are actually worse than those of its neighbors Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea [5]. If technology or shifting to more skilled works can propel future growth of China, why can’t Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, or India? [5]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-state-driven-growth-mode... |