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by bfieidhbrjr 2004 days ago
Responding to the question, and the comments:

It could be worse. Much worse. It could be the great depression, caused by massive shrinking in the money supply. Nobody likes growth in the money supply (well, ok, debtors do). But, it's better than a shrink. Or as Ray Dalio sorta says, a beautiful deleveraging.

Yes it's a bubble, defined by everyone saying it's not a bubble. Is TSLA justified - no and yes. Purely monetarily, no. But in relation to all it's competitors yes. They're all FUBAR. Most of them don't have a clue about either EVs or self-driving. They are horse carriage companies in the age of the Ford Model T.

Relative to their competitors, yes, TSLA should be ahead as a measure of future growth, or future ownership of the transportation sector. There is little doubt how clueless their competitors currently are. But it's still arguable TSLA is ahead of the curve a little.

Will TSLA come down? Different question. Now they're in the S&P 500 this isn't simple. Probably not. If you transpose or invert the question - who will challenge TSLA? Crickets. Silence. That's why TSLA is so highly valued. There is nobody even close. LOL NKLA.

Will tech stocks come down? Yes, but there's many ways to think of it. Will covid end? Yes, this too shall pass. tech stocks will come down but relative to what? The dollar? Maybe. But more likely everyone else will catch up a little.

Stepping back - let's ask a better quesiton. Who's long tech stocks? What would you bet tech stocks go up (a dollar? 10 dollars? 100 dollars..?). These questions are better asked as bets or about current positions.

1 comments

> They are horse carriage companies in the age of the Ford Model T.

I disagree. If you discount self-driving (and I do), then there are clearly other manufacturers who know perfectly well how to produce an EV. I own both a Tesla and a Bolt, and neither is a clear winner over the other. They each have ups & downs, but in any case GM produced a perfectly good EV. And Ford's Mach-E appears to be an improvement on Tesla's Model Y. The game is on, and the big boys seem to know the rules.

I've owned multiple Tesla and LEAFs. I've test driven a Bolt. A Bolt to a Tesla like Salieri to Mozart.

Where to even begin? Thin seats. Smaller car. No charging network. No self-driving. No remote software updates... It's a long list.

Does GM even know how to make a car these days? TSLA has massive growth problems. I've had my own issues with my Tesla cars. But how could we even talk about Bolt and Tesla in the same paragraph?

We should be talking about BMW. My past BMW service experiences were far better than Tesla. That's comparable to my Teslas. Who cares about GM?

If, one day, the Mach-E ships, and anyone buys it, and it has anything near AutoPilot then maybe we can talk about it. But right now the Mach-E is about as useful as a NKLA truck. With no charging network. Or AutoPilot. So it's basically a bigger LEAF.

> Thin seats

The Tesla seats are awful compared to pretty much every other car at the same price point, so I'm not sure this is a good point. The Bolt seats aren't great either, but they're not significantly worse.

> Smaller car

Yep, more nimble. Not as powerful, for sure. But more tossable. Much tighter turning radius.

> No charging network

Except it can use standard non-Tesla DC fast-chargers, and those networks are collectively growing much faster than Tesla is growing the Supercharger network.

> Does GM even know how to make a car these days?

Uh, yes? They've always had the engineering chops, even when they cut corners and made duds. My last car before the Tesla was a Camaro SS 1LE, and it's so far on a different planet from anything by Tesla that it's unfair to consider Tesla a car manufacturer at that point. Yeah, GM knows what they are doing, what a silly thing to say!

> We should be talking about BMW.

No, we should not. They make exactly two cool cars now. The rest are just as cookie cutter boring as everything else.

> Who cares about GM?

Anyone who likes cars? I get that this generally rules out Tesla owners, I accept that. But GM makes the mid-engine Corvette - at a price point normal people can even afford! And Camaros, and many other cars. Hate on them all you want, but they're a very legitimate car manufacturer.

> If, one day, the Mach-E ships

It is...

The Mach-E has a nicer interior than a Model 3, and even has an actual dashboard screen in addition to the big center one. Not to mention an analog-ish volume knob. I bet it uses actual rain sensors, too ;). Maybe even a manual glovebox release.

Tesla is good at being different, and their drivetrain technology is excellent. The rest of the car is just barely acceptable, and only if you squint, and only if you've never ridden in anything with Recaros, etc. I like my P3D but only because there isn't yet anything equivalent, aside from the just now shipping Mach-E.

Visual/interior specifics, smaller - they will adjust to what the market wants Charging network - not hard, will be there soon Self-driving - more of a "cool" feature, will be industry standard in a decade anyway Remote software updates - trivial to implement, will be standard

TSLA has nothing unique besides brand and battery tech. Battery tech is definitely going to be ubiquitous in a decade. They're already nearing an ideal range and charge time for average usecase.

Like I said, self driving is like a nerdy "cool feature". Nobody is gonna do something on their computer or take a nap or something.

Your post reads as if you have already decided to discount everything that is not Tesla. You seem to be in a cult.

I test drove the Bolt and the Tesla, and the Bolt is a MUCH better value for the dollars paid (you can get it for around 30k$ with a bit of haggling). Saying that GM doesn't know how to make car is laughable.