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by wpietri 1993 days ago
It's a good strategy only if you can take the same technology downmarket eventually. It's not yet clear how downmarket Tesla can be even in the car market, and the car market is very different than food, in that only 18% of people globally, mostly the richest, have cars, but 100% of them need to eat. Another important difference is that cars don't grow out of the ground.

Right now there's a flood of capital available, so it's very hard to tell a priori which ideas have legs and which are just mirages that look good in a slide deck. This could be amazing. But it could be another Juicero or WeWork, where the unit economics just don't make any sense.

1 comments

You're kidding, right? The model 3 rivals competitors in price and will only drop in price and it's a perfectly serviceable car for most people. Well as long as you don't get it "loaded"
Tesla Model 3 is 195 490 zł here.

For comparison the best selling new car was Toyota Corolla for 80 000 zł.

But the real bestselling cars are for over a decade the same - 5-10 year old VW Passat Combi from western Europe for 10-50 000 zł.

For 200 000 zł you can have a single-room flat in a big city and rent it out for considerable passive income. 2 such flats and you can live out of that (not very luxuriously but still).

That's why Tesla is considered a luxury car here. Most people drive cars worth less than 10% of a new Model 3.

I am definitely not kidding. The Tesla Model 3 costs twice as much as low-end new cars: https://www.motortrend.com/news/top-10-cheapest-new-cars/

It's also important to note that a lot of car purchasers buy used cars, because the low end of the new market is too expensive for them.

And really the appropriate comparison versus food is the transport sector, not cars alone. Cars are, as I said, the rich end of the market. In many places, cars are less popular than motorcycles, scooters, and bikes. I don't see any reason to think Tesla has an advantage going downmarket there. Indeed, as a luxury brand, there are significant brand barriers to them going lower in the car market, let alone down to scooters.

The model 3 is way too large for any market that isn't the US. (which is most people). Over last year alone in Europe the M3 market share fell from 33% to 13% IIRC. In China I think the loss of market share was even larger.
In some markets, or overall, it's my impression the model 3 and the BMW 3 series compete head to head and the BMW is losing dramatically. I don't want a Tesla, but I drove a new 3-series loaner and definitely came away thinking this is why people are getting Teslas. But I decided for me, a Honda hybrid at half the price would be better.