[carlmr]

>Also the weather is going to get better in the North Hemisphere soon

January is colder than December usually. We're not even over the peak. February should be roughly similar to December, March is when it gets better again usually. But that's still 2 months of people staying indoors a lot.

[Izkata]

Barring post-Thanksgiving spikes, cases in the US Midwest have been dropping since mid-November. And the spikes didn't even show up in all those states. Seems like places are getting past the peak already despite the temperature still dropping.

[carlmr]

In Germany they've been rising despite the lockdown light.

[thomasz]

Er should avoid meaningless terms like “lokdown light” and just say that we closed bars and restaurants and told people not to meet in private, which was largely ignored.

[carlmr]

I agree we should have closed shops after this didn't work and then schools if that still hadn't worked. But they didn't course correct for 4 weeks where it was obviously not working.

But the people I know kept to the private rules as much or as little as during the first lockdown, which seemed to work despite keeping public transport open. Which would enable similar transmissions as shops and schools.

[LeCow]

it's barley transmitted in shops, restaurants and bars.

if schools are open, it's pointless doing anything else. if schools are closed kids will still go out and play.

basically you're screwed if you do and screwed if you don't. and less and less people will listen as time goes on while the virus mutates and selects for contagious variants.

[thomasz]

We just do not have the means to detect transmission that happens outside of households and private parties. Data from countries that have working contact tracing procedures suggest that bars restaurants, gyms and so forth are indeed important drivers.

[GijsjanB]

The lockdown started on 16th December right? Shouldn't the effect become visible after 2 or 3 weeks? The current numbers are the outcome of the pre-lockdown rules?